On how quickly and how many tests they can do. Those are the two big takeaways that I had. Just the thinking behind it. This is the way it’s going to be, not for a few more weeks, but until the summer. Even after that, we have to do things that prevent that.

Rosemary:

and you’re quite right. One of the things they highlighted, this is regional epidemics across the country based on how different province have responded, things like spring break, testing. Catherine, there was a smidgen of good news because I’ll take any smidgen, where Dr. Tam said the curve nationally is beginning to bend a little bit. Not that we’re near anything, but there is a little bit of encouragement there.

Reporter:

Well, Rosie, I’ll pick that up and say, she did make the point there was not a particular – we couldn’t talk about a national peak, right, because this is somewhat – it is not somewhat, it’s a regionalized picture and they talked about the fact that we’reseeing the four largest provinces being hit. and talked briefly as well about the significance of this outbreak in long-term care facilities, which I think is clearly going to be a big part of the story going forward. I wanted to talk about responsibility these numbers. If we stop and look at the possible death projections in the scenarios we focus the most on today. 11, 000 deaths versus 22, 000 deaths. So a lot of numbers today, not only the projections, but the jobs numbers. That is a really – it’s such a significant, meaningful range ifwe stop for even a second to consider the amount of human suffering between one of those numbers and the other. They talked about the measures that need to stay in place in order to ensure a best-case scenario. So stronger epidemic control models include high degree of physical distancing. That is the responsibility of individual Canadians. Something we can expect to hear the Prime Minister talk about today. What we can do, physical distancing, proper etiquette, but also the responsibility on the public health officials. We need a high proportion of cases identified and isolated, so Canadians really need to do their part. We’re clearly going to need to do our part for some time. This and this is going to be a key weekend when so many of us would like to be with our families and public health officials saying you’re going to have to do that virtually. But to step up testing in some jurisdictions, and really track this virus as best they can. That is the way we’re going to save – we really are talking about in this case, even in the best-case scenario, a range of thousands and thousands of lives.

Rosemary:

Yep. Good to remember that. These are individuals we’re talking about, not just projections. It appears to be snowing in the nation’s capital. Just full of good news over here. Let me turn to a doctor, who is a researcher in the university of Toronto. Good to see you, doctor.

Good to be with you this morning.

Rosemary:

I’m waiting for the prime Minister, so if I cut you off, it’s only for him. Tell me, you were listening into the brief there from our federal public health officials, how did you take in the information? did you view it as helpful?

So I thought it was very helpful. It’s about time that the federal government came out with some figures that one could relate to because we’ve had the provincial models and predictions over the last several days and weeks. I thought the gist of the message was positive, that Canadians needed to continue to do what they were doing because there was early indication that people are perhaps successful in bending in the curve a little bit. My overall sense was that it was an emphasis on the optimistic scenarios of being between one and 5% infected, but the reality as time goes on and as economic pressures pile up, we probably need to include within that range the possibility there may be slackening in some places because of economic necessity, also the fact that people get tired of sitting at home. So I think it is timely to have this model out, but there is only one model. and the important thing right now, particularly in dynamic models, we need to feed this with ongoing information and engaging our researchers in building the model based on the ground realities as they build up. So overall, I welcome this move. I think it’s very important now for us to have something to relate to and to feed information into it as the epidemic evolves and as our response evolves. and see over time this is food for thought.

Rosemary:

It does sound as though this is not the last briefing. Hopefully, we’ll continue to getinformation. You’re quite right, doctor, as more is fed into the dynamic modelling. The fact that Dr. Ennooj said the first wave will last until summer and we keep the public health measures in place until then, would you agree with that assessment and how do you get people to stay on this course until summer?

So that wave that was alluded to is dependent on high level ofcompliance. If you have the high level of compliance and say in the 1-5% range, we’ll probably see the end of it by the end of the summer and begin to see some degree of graduated return to normal. But if things were to change, if people were to get pockets of outbreaks, if in our neighbours states – I’m worried about new York which is right at our borders, if the wildfire spread sand it begins to get pockets which are not reflective of just that percentage, potentially higher, than we should be prepared to adjust. So I thought that the end of summer was a bit optimistic. My sense is that the overall measures would need to go into the fall. and that we should be prepared for that eventuality based on these dynamic models just as the real data begins to come in.

Rosemary:

That’s a good point. The border restrictions you can see how they may have to stay in place longer than domestic measures. What do you think of the fact that there are provinces who are doing better? British Columbia is performing well, tested more. is there a world in which restrictions could slacken in parts of the country and not others? and how would that affect the potential spread of the virus if we did that?

So I think travelling controls, ensuring the imported infections as seen in other parts of the world, notably china, those would need to stay in place. Particularly as economic activities return and domestic travel within the country goes back to normal, I think some measures in terms of ensuring that we keep our eye on potential outcomes on differences in epidemiology between provinces, those would have to feed into the public health response. But the bottom line is that there are differences between the way British Columbia did and other provinces did. and they were number one ahead of the curve, they were led by science from the very outset. I think public communication in terms of response in British Columbia was ideal in many ways, sharing of information. and also they tested much more. So really speaking, they were in terms of response, you know, a model for many other provinces to follow. and they’re still trying to playcatchup in many ways in getting our testing and, therefore, our denominators right in terms of getting a sense of what is the total population infected and bydefault, total population susceptible.

Rosemary:

Last question to you, doctor, just about Ontario because we have heard of the – there is not enough testing frankly and the premier made that clear yesterday, that was not acceptable, we should be testing close to 13, 000 people aday. How concerned are you that Ontario in particular does not have an accurate picture of what is happening with this virus in this province?

So, very concerned. and many of My academic colleagues have made their points of view well known in terms of sharing the data as well. I think there needs to be more public sharing of information, particularly with the academics, people who do modelling for their academic life. Also, importantly, we need to know where the hot spots are. Where are the data gaps? we have very little information, particularly in Ontario. and where is it that we’re not even able to ascribe appropriate causes of death? in many countries they’re concerned that many of the COVID-19-related deaths, particularly nursing homes and the elderly, are not being categorized as COVID-19-related deaths because they were not tested. I think we need to have a close look at this because clearly we were not ahead of the curve, we were far behind it insofar as the nursing homes, mortality andthe tragedy concerned. Nearly half of all deaths in Canada are occupants of those kind of facilities. So some address needs to be madeimmediately in terms of ensuringthat these high pockets of susceptible can be addressed in terms of the reputation and the testing.

Rosemary:

Thank you so much for your expertise on this. Thank you, sir. Stay well. We are standing by to bring you the Prime Minister’s daily briefing from his home, Rideau cottage, where it is apparently snowing. I know it’s snowing in many places across the country. Alberta, Manitoba and now here as well, which might help people stay inside, because who wants to go out in that case? we’ll hear from the Prime Minister on the models and the projections that, you know, there was pressure to get more from the federal government on this front. and we did get that first picture today, but there will be questions on the state of the economy knowing that a million Canadians lost their jobs in March. Data really driven by the third week of March, but we also know that is actually a picture of the past that we have now more than 5 million Canadians who have registered for the economic relief package benefit. and so there will be far more Canadians who have lost their jobs and will lose their jobs as the economy comes to a standstill. Vassy, I’ll bring you back in for that. It is – yeah, it’s a lot of people. I know there are many more and all of these people have reachedout. The people that are asked to – oh, there is the Prime Minister. I’ll be quiet and let him talk and come back to you both.