Parses captions for PM Trudeau's daily speeches and presents them in a more human readable format
Rosemary:
and that is the Prime Minister of Canada giving his daily update to Canadians on his government’s approach to fight COVID-19 and the response today. a lot of the questions and the comments for the Prime Minister focused on what happens next because so many of you, of course, are also wondering that. He says that within an hour or so of speaking we should be able to see some federal-provincial guidelines on how this is going to happen. These are agreed upon, in principle, by the provinces and the federal government. I’ll bring in My colleagues, Vassy kapelos and david cochraneto talk more about that. So lots of questions there around Quebec, and I’ll just remind people that Quebec later, I think it’s 1:30 eastern, is going to talk about how businesses might reopen in that province. But yesterday talked about plansto reopen schools, a handful outside of montreal, most outside of montreal, within two weeks. and then even within the epicentre, really, of the country by may 19. and I thought the Prime Minister’s comments in terms of what he said, and even what he didn’t say, were pretty revealing there around his thoughts on that. I’ll get both of you to weigh inon that, Vassy.
Vassy:
Sure. Well, the Prime Minister basically said – he was asked actually by our colleague, tom Perry, to reflect on the decision both as a parent and as a former teacher, and he sort of did so in saying that, well, I’mgoing to have to wait for those two weeks to pass and then better assess where is the case count, for example, what measures are the schools putting into place. How safe do people feel at the time. I think that is probably the experience of a number of parents who are sort of sitting and waiting to see how it feels in two weeks, but there are also lot of questions, as you have pointed out, rosy, coming from parents, from teachers, and while it’s voluntary for parents, as David pointed out, it’s not voluntary for teachers and for staff at the school who are concerned about there still being a high level of cases in Quebec, and whether or not – I guess questions around whether or not the science supports reopening schools. We know that, for example, the incidents of this virus in kids appears, and I say appears, because the data is always evolving, to be lower. However, they are also, and we know about asymptomatic transmission, they are also capable of being carriers of it and transmitting it back to parents, and so there is just a heightened level of concern around why the need to go back this soon considering other jurisdictions aren’t doing it. I was also very interested in the number of questions posed to the Prime Minister who says I guess within the hour we’re going to be getting those federal guidelines for reopening the economy in various provinces, and it’s just guidelines. He keeps on stressing it’s not going to be imposed on any of the provinces, but I AM interested in what those guidelines say around testing and around what a province has to show or what metrics it has to meet in order to be able to start the ball rolling on something like, for example, reopening schools or sending kids back or reopening stores. It was difficult to ascertain kind of what level of detail will be in these. It did seem pretty general. I will offer this one point that seems important when it comes totesting. The kind of testing the Prime Minister is talking about is diagnostic testing. That’s what’s happening right now, and yes the capacity to do so has definitely ram pd up, but the parameters around that testing vary by province and they started out pretty narrow. Who can get a test, that started out pretty narrow and that’s whyit’s been hard to ascertain the full breadth of the disease or the spread of the disease here. What will offer us a better picture of that is what is known as serological testing or testing for immunity. How many people can go back to work in this sector because they’ve already had it and who needs to stay separated from them. That is very crucial to deciding when and how society reopens. The problem is that testing is not very reliable at this point. Although it’s been approved in the United States, there’s many studies that show it’s not working that well or it’s not totally accurate, and so the – it’s undergoing a process of approval here in Canada by health Canada, but there’s still no really sure timeline or certain timeline for when that testing will be available and how reliable it will be when it is, and that is key to really this whole process of reopening the economy, so kind of brings up the whole idea of timeline again.
Rosemary:
Yeah, and of coursedr. Tam yesterday talked about immunity. There are still questions around that as well, whether you can actually get the virus twice or, you know, whether we should rel yon any of this information because it is a new virus, as we’ve all talked about before. I’ll just say, David, before I get you to weigh in, that Ontario put out some fairly specific guidelines in its what it’s calling a road M.P. that the province has to be capable of more contact tracing, that they shouldn’t see any new cases for two to four weeks, that there must be – he said there must be a steady decline, rather, in cases for two to fourweeks, that they must be able to increase testing. I don’t know that I’ve heard the same things from Quebec. Perhaps we will hear them this afternoon, but I’m not sure they have been that precise and I don’t know if those measures Ontario is talking about there are going to be reflected in the guidelines that the Prime Minister is talking about.
David:
Yeah, Ontario schools, because that is the live issue in Quebec right now, they are closed until the end of the month. I was looking at Prince Edward Island, Prince Edward Island schools are closed until at least may 11 with the decision to be revisited in two days. I look at Prince Edward Island, every day, no new cases. They still haven’t made a decision to reopen schools, so you have Quebec, which has more cases than any other province, which has more deaths than any other province. Now admittedly these are largely in long-term care homes, which has become the nightmare in thiscountry, and whether the bulk ofthe deaths have happened. These are not happening with school-age kids, but going back to Vassy’s point, there’s still a lot of uncertainty as of the ability of children to be carriers and transmitters of this disorder, and I do look at the teacher issue. The labour Minister said very early in this that at the federal level they would make sure that workers had the right to refuse to go to work if they felt their workplace was not so safe because of what has happened in this whole thing. I don’t think they have jurisdiction over that in Quebec. I think that would be provinciallabour ministries, but I’d be curious to know how the teachersunions there feel about this andthe support staff unions feel about this. I mean, like the Prime Minister talked about, you could have desks separated. That’s fine in the older grades. Kindergarten is play-based learning so there aren’t desks and everyone congregates together and shares lunch and sneezes over each other. That’s just the way it is in theschool system. So this is a remarkable experiment by franÇois legault here to make this choice, and ifyou go back to the Ontario example on businesses reopening, never mind schools reopening, everything – every step along the way calls for two to four weeks of sustained decreases in the number of cases and – thereare very specific sort of benchmarks on improvement in societal transmission and in thehealth system capacity. and stephen lecce has said no schools until at least June, so Quebec is very much the outlier here with the rest of the country. a lot of the provinces have saidwe’re closed for the rest of theyear. Newfoundland and Labrador and Alberta has done that. Jason kenney said there’s a lot of evidence that says schools need to be closed for 10 to 12 weeks before you could see a measurable impact in community transmission. So I think we all hope the numbers trend in the direction that allows for this to happen on may 11, but it would be interesting to hear more from the premier of Quebec on this today.
Rosemary:
a couple of points. As you rightly point out, the majority of cases and deaths in that province are in long-term care centres. Yesterday it was 75 of the 84 deaths registered within the past 24 hours were all in long-term care centres. As you’ve both pointed out, children can still be vectors for the virus. So you know, I know the Prime Minister laid out I thought in apretty interesting way what he would be looking for as a parent, spaced apart desks and that kind of thing. In denmark, for instance, only two kids out for recess at a time. I’m not sure how feasible that is when the kids are little. But I also would point out the Prime Minister said there’s a couple weeks yet, and perhaps –perhaps they are hoping not onlythat the data changes and supports this decision but perhaps they are also hoping that the decision itself changes, given that franÇois legault last week was talking pretty openly about the notion of herd immunity, and that has very much changed. His language around that has changed after it was suggested to him by others that that wasn’t something to be basing decisions on. I’ll come back to both of you as we wait for this federal briefing from public health officials on new modelling. We did, of course, get our firstview of the national picture, about 19 days ago, and they are going to update those numbers for us today. But let me bring in the cbc newsmontreal host debra arbek. She is in montreal and can speakto what we’ve been speculating about here. Debra, lots of questions to the Prime Minister around this decision by Quebec, and we are expecting more details from the premier about businesses today, and maybe there will be some more dates and a sense of how this will work.
Yeah, there’s a ton of pressure to get the economy rolling again here in Quebec, but what we’re hearing is you can expect a slow, prudent approach, and a gradual reopening, much in line with the plan announced yesterday to gradually reopen schools in thisprovince. That’s happening in phases. You guys were talking about it just moments ago, starting outside Montreal, may 11, and then on the island of Montreal a week later, provided everything goes well and we don’t see further outbreaks. We can only expect a similar plan for the reopening of businesses, so we’re hearing the province looked at how other provinces and even how other countries are going to reopen their economies for inspiration, then cherry picked what they thought could work here. The greater Montreal area still, as you mentioned, considered a hot zone where most of the COVID-19 cases and deaths have been concentrated. It’s likely, like schools, businesses will reopen later in Montreal as well. So first in the regions and then eventually here on the island. Much like in the schools, social distancing will have to be maintained, so they are going to probably be industries like construction that opens first, where they have strict protocols already in place for safety and they can reduce the number of workers on construction sites too. Construction sites would have to have water, soap for workers so they can wash their hands, for example. Residential construction, by theway, started up again last week, and their union tells us today that so far things are actually going very well, even better than it was going before COVID-19 broke out here. As for stores, well, they are likely going to begin opening up as well, but only those with outside access, so not necessarily malls in the regions. We’re going to hear more from Quebec’s economy Minister, pier fitsgibbon. He’ll join the premier for his daily briefing at 1:00 today. They’ll lay out the plans then.
Rosemary:
Okay, and Debra, what is the reaction, I mean broadly, of course, about the school reopening? because it is – Quebec does seem to be an outlier in terms of its approach to opening schools and lots of people raising their eyebrows in the rest of the country. How are people feeling in quebecabout it?
Yeah, many are raising their eyebrows here too, but there are many parents who say, look, it’sbeen six weeks. It’s time to get back to class. This is all voluntary, so they don’t have to do it. Any child with a chronic illness or family members with a chronic illness should not send their kids back. That’s what the government is saying. Obviously all parents worry about the safety of their children, but some parents say that, you know, they’ve been balancing work at home with the kids. They are bored. They miss their kids. They need structure again, and they are comfortable with the government’s safety plans, mainly that classes, the sizes will have to be limited to 15 students, and kids will have to stay two metres apart, even in classrooms. Their parents are saying, though, they are worried and they are wondering why the province is putting kids through this kind of thing at this point because there’s only a month and half left in the school year, especially on the island of Montreal where all of the deaths – most of the deaths have been – or many of the deaths, I should say, have been concentrated. They also say it’s nearly impossible to maintain safe social distancing with 5 to 12-year-olds, and teachers unions are also concerned. You guys were touching on this earlier. There’s less risk, of course, tochildren who come down with COVID-19, but older teachers, that’s a totally different story. They worry about the health of those older teachers, and added problem to all of that is if they get sick, they stay home. Schools could end up with a teacher shortage. So all of these things are beingweighed as, you know, we get ready to go back to school and back to work.
Rosemary:
and s GPS and high schools and universities, of course, in that province not going to reopen until the fall. Also another interesting decision. We’ll hear more from the Prime Minister at 1:30 eastern, if I’mnot mistaken. Debra, appreciate you weighing in.
No problem.
Rosemary:
We are standing by to bring you the latest data from the public health officials that will happen here at noon, at the top of the hour. Also at noon, parliament will reconvene in a virtual format. Everyone is invited, of the 338 MPs. All of them make up this specialcovid committee, but not all of them will be there because it is being done by zoom, and we all know how challenging that can be. So we’ll see how this first round goes here today at noon, 12:45 is when the prime minister is expected to appear. There will be an in-person sitting tomorrow, and another virtual one on Thursday. I’ll bring back My colleagues, Vassy and david, as we wait for the federal briefing to start. Maybe we can just sort of give apicture of what we can expect based on what we saw 19 days agoon that modelling. I’ve only got about two minutes, so I’ll get both of you to be brief, but what you would be looking for based on what we have already seen.
Vassy:
So I’ll just quickly jump in, rosy, and say that it sounded like from the Prime Minister’s preview that it will be an improved picture from what we saw 19 days ago in which they presented us with two basic scenarios in which 2.5% of the population versus 5% of the population gets infected, the death range at that point due to the virus was between 11, 000 and22, 000. Although earlier this month it looked like the modelling was almost under-assuming what the deaths would be, that it was growing faster. It looks like depending on the province that you’re in, the curve has flattened and the Prime Minister even specificallyalluded to that. So I’m looking to see overall big picture where are we on thatcurve. and I know again it’s sort of region dependent, but I think weare anxious to get a sense of have the things we’ve been doing, are the things that we are doing, the limits we’re placing on our lives, have they had a salient effect on the progression of this virus, and it sounds like at least there issome evidence that it has.
Rosemary:
Yeah. 30 seconds for you, David. Same point.
David:
Rosy, I’m going to be looking for hope, encouragement and progress. I know he said earlier the national model is less important than the various provincial models in terms of seeing things, but Canadians kind of are looking for a pat on the back, I think. That what they’ve done has been working, and the only way to do that is in raw numbers, and look at the – compare 19 days ago to now and to see if this really has made a difference in the way that they all say. Because the new case numbers and new death numbers every day are horrifying and tragic. Maybe the big picture can be more positive than each of those individual cases.
Rosemary:
Okay, so we’ll look for those. We’ll look for all – what you both said there. Thank you very much. We’ll talk in a little bit. Thank you. As I said, we are expecting that federal picture to be presented. Important to keep in mind something that the public health agency always says, that these are projections. It is not precise, but it will give us a sense of how we are doing as a country. We’ll leave you now on CBC. If you want to keep watching, CBC news network”, CBC. Ca. ♪♪
hi, everybody, I’m rose mare again from Ottawa, rosemary Barton. I want to take you right to Ottawa right now, Dr. Theresa tam speaking at this hour about federal modelling, projections on how this country is managing to fight COVID-19. Let’s listen in.
– 40, 000 people for COVID-19with about 7% of these testing positive. Over 20, 000 people have been tested daily. As provinces and territories continue to increase testing capacity. (voice of translator).
Good morning. Let’s start with the latest figures across Canada. Today there are 49, 025 cases, including 2, 766 deaths. To date, laboratories throughout the country have carried out over 740, 000 tests and about 7% of these have turned out positive. The provinces and territories continue to increase their testing capacity, and over 20, 000 people have been getting tested every day for the past week. [ end of translation ].
Dr. Theresa Tam:
Earlier this month we shared our forward projections and the potential impacts on the health care system. Today we will present an update on our previous projections and discuss the implications for moving forward. As I have said before, models are planning tools. They allow us to forecast infection and illness rates in the short term and to explore the effectiveness of different combinations and timing of public health measures to control the epidemic. (voice of translator).
Dr. Howard Njoo:
Slide two. Earlier this month we shared our projections and the potential impacts on the health care system. Today we will present an update on the projections and discuss the implications for moving forward. As we’ve said before, models are planning tools. They allow us to forecast infection and illness rates in the short term and to explore the effectiveness of different combinations and timing of public health measures to control the epidemic. [ end of translation ].
Dr. Theresa Tam:
Slide three. As a reminder, our strategy is twofold, to control the epidemic by reducing transmissions through public health measures, pushing that blue curve down. and to prepare our health system to meet increased demand by raising up the dotted red line of health care capacity. (voice of translator).
Dr. Howard Njoo:
Slide 3. We remind you that our strategy is twofold, to control the epidemic by reducing transmission through public health measures, pushing the blue curve down and secondly to prepare our health system to meet increased demand raising up the dotted red line of health care capacity. [ end of translation ].
Dr. Theresa Tam:
Slide four-in order for the epidemic to die out, we need to get to the point where each infected individual is only transmitting the virus to less than one otherperson, which is one of the primary objectives of all of ourpublic health measures. Prior to implementing public health control measures in March, we estimated that each infected person passed the viruson to an average of just over two additional people. Today, stronger controls, including physical distancing, increased testing to identify and isolate cases, and trace andquarantine contacts are helping to reduce the number of people infected to an average of just above one. (voice of translator).
Dr. Howard Njoo:
Slide four. In order for the epidemic to dieout, we need to get to the point where each infected individual is only transmitting the virus to less than one other person, which is one of the primary objectives of all our public health measures. Prior to implementing public health control measures in March, we estimated that each infected person passed the virusto, on average, just over two additional people. Today, stronger controls, including physical distancing, increased testing to identify and isolate cases and trace and quarantine contacts are helping to reduce the average number of people. Each case infects to just above one. [ end of translation ].
Dr. Theresa Tam:
Slide five. I will now provide an update on the epidemiology of COVID-19 in Canada. Slide six. The epidemiologic picture in Canada continues to highlight regional differences. With our two largest provinces, Ontario and Quebec, representing more than 80% of all confirmed cases. British Columbia and Alberta are the next most affected provinces, accounting for 14% of confirmed cases. Elsewhere, case counts are lower, but all provinces and territories, with the exception of Nunavut, have reported cases. Confirmed case counts are more than doubled since April 9 modelling briefing. This increase is largely attributable to increases reported in Quebec, Ontario, Alberta, British Columbia and Nova Scotia. The proportion of cases who have died has increased from 2.2% on April 9 to 5.5% as of April 27. It is expected that the case fatality ratio will continue to change over time. Based on available information, 17% of cases have required hospitalization, and less than 5% have required intensive care. (voice of translator).
Dr. Howard Njoo:
Slide 5. (no translation). differences with our two largestprovinces, Ontario and Quebec, representing more than 80% of all confirmed cases. British Columbia and Alberta are the next most affected provinces, accounting for 14% of confirmed cases. Elsewhere, case counts are lower, but all provinces and territories, with the exception of Nunavut, have reported cases. Confirmed cases counts have more than doubled since the April 9 modelling briefing. This increase is largely attributable to increased reported in Quebec, Ontario, Alberta, British Columbia and Nova Scotia. The proportion of cases who have died has increased from 2.2% on April 9 to 5.5% as of April 27. It is expected that the case fatality ratio will continue to change over time. Based on available information, 17% of cases have required hospitalization, and less than 5% have required intensive care. [ end of translation ].
Dr. Theresa Tam:
Slide seven. Based on available information, some individuals are –
Rosemary:
Just want to quickly show you what else is happening in Ottawa this hour. This is the speaker of the house of commons, Anthony roda, appearing virtually for the first time. This is the first time parliament has done this. They are appearing in a COVID-19 committee form rather than a typical sitting you would see for the house of commons, and we’ll leave that up on your screen for a little bit in case we can see other MPs appearing over zoom. This is the only shot that we’veseen so far, but we should see 30 or so MPs dialling in from wherever they might be across the country to participate in this first virtual sitting of the house of commons. It’s the first go. They did do a test run yesterday. We’ll see how it goes and keep monitoring it and bring you little snippets that may become interesting. Again, Anthony roda, speaking of the house of commons. We will go back now to the federal briefing. Justin Trudeau, the Prime Minister, will appear at that virtual meeting of the house of commons at 12:45. (voice of translator).
Dr. Howard Njoo:
Almost three quarters of cases of information available reported one or more pre-existing health condition. However, no one is immune to severe outcomes of COVID-19. [ end of translation ].
Dr. Theresa Tam:
Slide 8. Canada has several regional epidemics, as shown here. Many factors, such as differences in sub populations affected and laboratory testing contribute to these regional trends. We are observing slowed epidemic growth and a levelling off of epidemic trajectories across most jurisdictions in Canada. (voice of translator).
Dr. Howard Njoo:
Slide 8. Canada has several regional epidemics as shown here. Many factors, such as differences in sub populations affected and laboratory testing contribute to these regional trends. We are observing slowed epidemic growth and a levelling off of epidemic trajectories across most jurisdictions in Canada. [ end of translation ].
Dr. Theresa Tam:
Slide 9. Outbreaks in high-risk populations are a driving force behind the regional epidemics. In particular, outbreaks in long-term care and seniors homesare driving epidemic growth in Quebec, Ontario and Nova Scotia currently and are responsible for the majority of all deaths in Canada. Outbreaks in other congregate living and work settings are also driving case counts in someprovinces. These settings include shelters, correctional facilities and foodand agricultural work settings where congregate housing for employees. (voice of translator).
Dr. Howard Njoo:
Slide 9. Outbreaks in high-risk populations are a driving force behind the regional epidemics, in particular outbreaks in long-term care and seniors homesare driving epidemic growth in Quebec, Ontario and Nova Scotia currently, and are responsible for the majority, that is 79%, of all deaths in Canada. Outbreaks in other congregate living and work settings are also driving case counts in someprovinces. These settings include shelters, correctional facilities and foodand agricultural work settings with congregate housing for employees. [ end of translation ].
Dr. Theresa Tam:
Slide 10. This slide compares how fast the epidemic is growing in several countries. For comparison purposes, country curves are aligned at day zero, the day the country reached its first 500 cases. Countries whose epidemics began earlier were chosen for this comparison. Canada’s epidemic, the red curve, is at a somewhat earlier stage, hence the Canada line is shorter. Canada’s epidemic slope is bending as the rate of growth slows down in response to our collective control efforts. Canada’s total case counts continue to increase more slowly than most countries. Last time I presented this graph to you, Canada’s confirmed case count was doubling every three to five days. At this time, the doubling – the number of cases is doubling at a rate of every 16 days. (voice of translator).
Dr. Howard Njoo:
Slide 10. This slide compares how fast the epidemic is growing in several countries. For comparison purposes, country curves are aligned at day zero, the day the country reached its first 500 cases. Countries whose epidemics began earlier were chosen for this comparison. Canada’s epidemic, the red curve, is at a somewhat earlier stage, hence the Canada line is shorter. Canada’s epidemic slope is bending as the rate of growth slows down in response to our collective control efforts. Canada’s total case counts continue to increase more slowly than most other countries. Last time I presented this graph to you, Canada’s confirmed case count was doubling every three to five days. At this time, the number of cases is doubling at every 16 days. [ end of translation ].
Dr. Theresa Tam:
Slide 11. Now we’re looking at some modelling scenarios. Slide 12. It is important to recognize that models are not crystal balls and cannot predict what will happen. What models provide is a prediction of what could happen under various hypothetical scenarios to allow us to prepare for a worst-case scenario and todrive our public health actions towards a best possible outcome. Nationally we are using two modelling approaches, forecasting and dynamic models. Forecasting models use actual data on the cases being reportedover time in Canada to estimate forward on how many new cases wemight expect in the coming week. Dynamic models don’t use real life case data yet are useful inthat they permit a longer-term view based on our knowledge of how the virus behaves. This helps us to visualize potential epidemic growth scenarios and impact of control measures that mitigate growth over time. (voice of translator).
Dr. Howard Njoo:
Slide 11. Modelling scenarios. Slide 12. It is important to recognize that models are not a crystal ball and cannot predict what will happen. What models provide is a prediction of what could happen under various hypothetical scenarios to allow us to prepare for a worst-case scenario and todrive our public health actions toward a possible best outcome. Nationally we are using two modelling approaches: forecasting and dynamic models. Forecasting models use actual data on the cases being reportedover time in Canada to estimate forward on how many new cases wemight expect in the coming week. Dynamic models don’t use real-life case data, yet are useful in that they permit a longer-term view based on our knowledge of how the virus behaves. This helps us to visualize potential epidemic growth scenarios and impact of control measures that mitigate growth over time. [ end of translation ].
Dr. Theresa Tam:
Slide 13. This slide illustrates possible trajectories generated by a forecasting model that uses realcanadian case data. The graph on the left shows the predicted number of COVID-19 cases could be in the range of 53, 000 to 67, 000 cases by May 5. The graph on the right, which isnew, shows the predicted number of deaths due to COVID-19 could be in the range of 3, 300 to 3, 900 by May 5. Due to changes in the epidemiology of COVID-19 in Canada, including outbreaks in high-risk settings, the initial modelling projections on April 9under-predicted the number of deaths. This was because a lower generalpopulation case fatality ratio was used in the model that we had at the time. But with a large number of outbreaks occurring in long-termcare homes, the actual case fatality rates was higher than the modelling scenario. The models have been adjusted for the higher case fatality rates and we will continue to make adjustments to these forecasting models over time based on real data. Right now we are seeing the tragic paradox of the epidemic playing out. As the epidemic comes under control and the growth of cases slows, the severe outcomes and deaths continue to accrue as COVID-19 takes a heavy toll among highly susceptible populations. (voice of translator).
Dr. Howard Njoo:
Slide 13. This slide illustrates possible trajectories generated by a forecasting model that uses realcanadian case data. The graph on the left shows that the predicted number of COVID-19cases could be in the change of 53, 000 to 67, 000 cases by May 5. The graph on the right shows that the predicted number of deaths due to COVID-19 COULD be in the range of 3, 300 to 3, 900 by May 5. Due to changes in the epidemiology of COVID-19 in Canada, including outbreaks in high-risk settings, the initial modelling projections on April 9under-predicted the number of deaths. This was because a lower generalpopulation case fatality rate was used in the model that we had at the time. But, with a large number of outbreaks occurring in long-termcare homes, the actual case fatality rate was higher than the modelling scenario. The models have been adjusted with the higher case fatality rate and will continue to make adjustments to these forecastingmodels over time based on real data. Right now we are seeing the tragic paradox of the epidemic playing out. As the epidemic comes under control and the growth of cases slows, the severe outcomes and deaths continue to accrue as COVID-19 takes a heavy toll among highly susceptible populations. [ end of translation ].
Dr. Theresa Tam:
Slide 14. You are now familiar with this graph and concept showing the potential impact of our public health measures on the size and duration of the epidemic wave. This slide illustrates the three possible scenarios we use for planning. The red curve with the sharp high peak represents the no control or worst-case scenario where the majority of the population could be infected over relatively short period of time. The blue line curve shows a scenario where weaker epidemic controls have been implemented to delay and reduce the height of the peak. The green smaller curve represents a best-case scenario in which we implement strong public health measures to reach our objective of epidemic control. This is the scenario we are currently working towards, whereeach infected person only transmits to less than one otherperson. To stay on this green best-case scenario curve we must achieve and maintain a high degree of physical distancing while also maintaining a high rate of case detection and isolation and contact tracing and quarantine. (voice of translator).
Dr. Howard Njoo:
Slide 14. You are now familiar with this graph and concept showing the potential impact of our public health measures on the size and duration of the epidemic wave. This slide illustrates the three possible scenarios we used for planning. The red curve with the sharp high peak represents the no controls or worst-case scenario where the majority of the population could be infected over a relatively short period of time. The blue line curve illustrates a scenario where weaker epidemiccontrols have been implemented to delay and reduce the height of the peak. The green, smaller curve, represents a best-case scenario in which we implement strong public health measures to reach our objectives of epidemic controls. This is the scenario we are currently working towards, whereeach person infected only transmits to less than one otherperson. To stay on this green best-case scenario curve, we must achieve and maintain a high degree of physical distancing while also maintaining a high rate of case detection and isolation and contact tracing and quarantine. [ end of translation ].
Dr. Theresa Tam:
Slide 15. All jurisdictions are working towards epidemic control. However, it is critical to remember that once we are on the downside of the slope, we must absolutely remain vigilant and continue our public health measures. By achieving epidemic control, we expect that only a small proportion of the population will be immune. So until the population has developed a high level of immunity to the virus or we have vaccine in place, we have to plan to live with a manageable level of COVID-19 activity. Therefore, we anticipate that some public health measures will need to remain in place to prevent the sparking and growth of future epidemic waves. (voice of translator).
Dr. Howard Njoo:
(no translation). we expect that only a small proportion of the population will be immune. So until the population has developed a high level of immunity to the virus, or we have a vaccine in place, we have to plan to live with a manageable level of COVID-19 activity. Therefore, we anticipate that some public health measures will need to remain in place to prevent the sparking and growth of future epidemic waves. [ end of translation ].
Dr. Theresa Tam:
Slide 16. We continue to monitor the situation closely and will evaluate, learn and adapt as we go. We are making clear progress to slow the spread and bring the epidemic under control, thanks to the commitment of Canadians who are following public health advice to protect themselves andothers. The epidemiology of COVID-19 is not the same in all parts of thecountry, so when and how control measures are readjusted and are relaxed will need to be decided based on the local epidemiology situation. It is critically important that we maintain our public health measures, including physical distancing, until we have achieved epidemic control for the first wave. Relaxing controls too quickly will squander our collective efforts to date and put us at risk of future epidemic waves. Thank you. (voice of translator).
Dr. Howard Njoo:
Slide 16, summary. We continue to monitor the situation closely and will evaluate, learn and adapt as we go. We are making clear progress to slow the spread and bring the epidemic under control thanks to the commitment of Canadians who are following public health advice to protect themselves andothers. The epidemiology of COVID-19 is not the same in all parts of thecountry. So when and how control measures are readjusted or relaxed will need to be decided based on the local epidemic situation. It is critically important that we maintain our public health measures, including physical distancing, until we have achieved epidemic controls with the first wave. Relaxing controls too quickly could squander our collective efforts to date and put us at risk of future epidemic waves. Thank you. [ end of translation ].
Thank you, doctors. We will now open the line and the floor to questions. As usual, we will start with three questions from the phone and then three questions from the room. (voice of translator). you can put your questions in either official language. [ end of translation ]. one question and one follow-up. For those in the room, we ask that you make your way over to the free standing mics. Operator eric, over to you.
Operator:
Thank you. If you have a question, please press star 1 on your telephone key pad. (voice of translator). if you have a question, please press star on your touch to en keyboard [ end of translation ]. the first question is from . . . (voice of translator). you have the mic.
Reporter:
Thank you. I see in the annexes that nothing has changed in the long-term forecast and the totalnumber of deaths and the total number of cases. Can you explain why that wasn’t adjusted in the same way that you adjusted your short-term predictions until May 5?
Dr. Howard Njoo:
This is Dr. Njoo. Thank you for the question. Answer. The five are still in force because in the last slide we evaluated the possibilities if the infection reached 1%, 2%, ET cetera. That hasn’t changed because we continue with our best efforts to have the lowest infection rate possible. But in the short term, given the data and the cases we have already, we can do a short-term projection, but long-term projections, this remains in place.
Reporter:
Okay. AM I to understand, then, that right now we are in – at a minimum, we’re at the 2.5% scenario, 2.5% is infected? and My other question is you said that in the future a person could infect at most one person. What do you mean exactly, 1.1, one that infects 2 point something compared to one who infects 1 point something?
Dr. Howard Njoo:
Yes, I think if you’re talking about the slide on page 20, here in canadaright now we are in the green zone. We can’t give you an exact figure about the percentage of the population that’s infected because we don’t know if we’re at the end of the first wave, and perhaps for the total epidemic it’s different.
Reporter:
But we know it will be 1% because it’s 4, 000 people. You’re talking about 3, 800.
Dr. Howard Njoo:
Yes. But this is always evolving. We can’t always reach conclusions after the first wave in total because it depends what will happen in the next few waves. But concerning your question about the number of people that an infected person can infect inturn, at the beginning, yes, it was a little more than two people, two point something. It’s very difficult to be more precise. We know that it’s slightly more than one person. That’s not great, but it’s better. The objective is to have one person infecting less than one other person. That means that we can finally stop these outbreaks here in Canada. [ end of translation ].
Operator:
The next question is from Laura osmond of the Canadian press. Please go ahead.
Reporter:
Thank you. I have a question about the case fatality count in the long-term dynamic scenarios. Should those be adjusted long term? can we expect to see more deathseven in the best-case scenario based on the new case fatality rate?
Dr. Theresa Tam:
So I think Dr. Njoo said in french, actually, we don’t know what the final outcome is yet. We are still on that first wave, and these projections are actually for essentially over the course of the pandemic itself. Until the epidemic is over, you actually don’t know the true case fatality rate as sort of the denominator and the numerator changes over time. So these are kind of dynamic, until you actually get to the bottom of the epidemic, you actually don’t know. So right now, of course, we think we’re in that green zone. As you just looked at the deaths, but we haven’t got to the final outcome, so that’s why think Dr. Njoo has just said that also in french as well. But that green range is exactly what we’re aiming for, and we believe that we’re staying within that zone.
Thank you. Doctor. a follow-up?
Reporter:
Can we expect that the shape of that green curve to change dramatically over the next couple of weeks as provinces start to talk about carefully lifting their restrictions?
Dr. Theresa Tam:
So I think this is the projection as of now. But I think it depends on what actually happens in long-term care homes, for example. I think all provinces and territories are trying very hardto bring any outbreaks under control, to put in place these preventive measures. I think when we see the virus going into a susceptible population, then – and that they are at higher risk of severe outcomes, then the case fatality ratio could still change. It could still get higher. It’s possible. But again, these curves – if you see that curve itself, the graph on the right, on slide 13, the further out you go in terms of from when we did the projection, the curves widen because the actual uncertainty and the spread and the range increases over time, just because every day out from the estimates your level of certainty decreases, and those curves start spreading wider apart. But that’s the range that we areforecasting at this point in time.
Thank you, Dr. Tam. Operator?
Operator:
Thank you. The next question . . . (voice of translator) you have the floor. Please go ahead. [ end of translation ].
Reporter:
I’m circling back to the previous previous question. In terms of the slide, the last slide, in terms of the projectedlong-term deaths depending on the percentage of the populationthat would be infected, I’m having a hard time understandingwhy the death rate isn’t higher given that you just said in the beginning that your short-term death prediction had to be reviewed because we’ve seen moredeaths in long-term care residences. So if we’ve already had a higherdeath rate, how come the long-term death rate isn’t increased to take that into account? does that make sense?
Dr. Theresa Tam:
Yes.
Reporter:
Okay.
Dr. Theresa Tam:
I think for the purposes of planning, I think we are staying within thatzone, but yeah, I mean, models do have to be adjusted over time, so some of these assumptions can be adjusted overtime, but I think for our planning purposes these three different scenarios are still useful at this moment in time. But you’re absolutely right. I think we will essentially be adjusting as we go as well, eve non the longer term. But I think, you know, this is the nature of models. But I think for planning purposes, right now we are just sticking with these three scenarios.
Dr. Howard Njoo:
Maybe I would just add to that. When you look at that last slide and the scenarios, the green zone, the blue zone and so on, think a lot of it is also based on the experience that we’ve seen in other countries with sort of an overall sort of projected mortality rate. Certainly right now as of the moment our death rate is higher because we all understand what’sbeen happening in long-term carefacilities, et cetera. But if we obviously collectivelydo a better job down the road, then you might see that overall, as the overall pandemic sort of unfolds, and at the very end of the day when, as Dr. Tam said, you can more accurately calculate a case fatality rate, it may be closer to what maybe the experience that we’re seeingin other countries and so on. So like Dr. Tam and I have said, models are useful as a tool for planning purposes, but they are certainly not the crystal ball that will exactly tell you how many people will be, you know, hospitalized or end up dying at the end of the day.
Thank you, Dr. Njoo. Follow-up?
Reporter:
Yes, thank you. If we go back to the short-term, then, I understand the more you progress the wider the projections are, but it is only in a week, so if you look at thesituation right now, the death rate that we are seeing for the past few days overall in the country, right now is your curvecloser to the red curve of slide13 or are we tending closer to the green curve? in other words, right now, with what we’re seeing in the past few days in terms of death ratesper day, or cases per day, are we – where do you see the curvegoing most likely? or is it the black curve in the middle?
Dr. Howard Njoo:
I’ll start off and hand it over to Dr. Tam. As we’ve said, the reason we only want to give, let’s say, short-term projections is because of that level of uncertainty that the farther outyou go. As you can see here, based on the models – sorry, the projections by our experts, whatwe talk about usually in epidemiology and modelling is what we call a 95% confidence interval. and you can see that’s why we have, quote, the upper and lowerlimit. and so in the middle it’s sort of where we think we’re trackingand we have that quote upper limit and lower limit in terms of the confidence limits, but you’re right, we have to see what unfolds over the coming days. The other point we’ve made repeatedly, if you’re looking atdeaths, et cetera, it’s kind of hard to look at predictions because they really are the result in many ways of activities, what the general population, what was happening at long-term care facilities, sort of, like, two or three weeks ago obviously because by the time the incubation period, you know, unfolds and testing, et cetera, and so on. Obviously what we do today will have a direct impact on what we see in terms of the actual data two to three weeks out from now. I think that’s an important point to underline. Dr. Tam?
Dr. Theresa Tam:
Maybe I’ll just suggest those with better eyes than me on a tiny piece of paper right now, if you looked at today’s date, and we just indicated that we had 2, 766 deaths, it is trending within the line of prediction, and so if you went across this graph a couple of days from the last time we checked in on the data, it is trending as this particular curve and within thatrange. So we will see in the next few days what happens.
Thank you, doctors. Now we will go in the room. Stevie?
Reporter:
Hi, thank you very much for doing this today. You’ve said that 79% of deaths have been tied to long-term carefacilities and the deaths have only gone up since the federal government released its previousmodelling a few weeks ago. What do the new models show about how effective the various measures have been to try to control outbreaks in long-term care homes and seniors homes, and as well, how many of the overall deaths in today’s modelswill be tied to long-term care facilities?
Dr. Theresa Tam:
Again, whatever we do today will result in the sort of final picture that we’re going to see, and so working really, really hard in getting outbreaks under control, not just in the long-term care homes, but some of the other settings that also lays out in that slide including the personswho have – experiencing homelessness, some of our correctional institutes and others are really important right now. and so I think what we do now to get those settings prepared willeventually influence the final picture for sure. I think, though, if you looked at the various composite amount of information we gave you is that it is really slowing down. You know, the doubling of the cases went from about three to five days the last time we spoketo now closer to every 16. and the epidemic is slowing downin the different provinces and territories. But the data that we’ve presented at the national level, I think there was a question about, you know, whether that effective reproduction number isat. What we’re showing you is a composite picture. What you will see that in some jurisdictions they actually haven’t had community transmission. Theirs are going to be under 1, and others are still working at this, some of the other bigger provinces as they are working really hard at getting some of the clusters under control. I think in our discussion with chief medical officers, we are also trying to look at the epidemiology itself, because thetransmission dynamics inside a relatively confined cluster is different than looking at general community transmission as well. So that kind of epidemiology, provinces will take into accountas they look at when and how they’re going to relax some of their measures.
Follow-up?
Reporter:
Yes. Ontario and Quebec represent about 80% of confirmed cases, and given that it appears there’s no levelling off right now in either province, do you believe it’s too early for the premiers and those governments to be considering lifting restrictions and even considering opening schools and industries?
Dr. Theresa Tam:
I think in all jurisdictions, including Ontario and Quebec, things are slowing down, despite the fact, of course, we’re still seeing cases and they are all working really hard. I think it is important to collectively plan forwards, and so with chief medical officers of health, we collaborated on looking at the common criteria, some of which are very much reflected in what the provinces are – have spoken to, like Ontario, for example, looking at getting the epidemic under control, making sure you have the public health capacity in place for testing, as well as contact tracing and case isolation and quarantine, as well as ensuring that your health care surge capacity is still there. and so all of those kind of factors go into the way that they make the decisions as well. So we are also collectively looking at when the time is right for each jurisdiction, what some of those initial measures could be in terms of easing back some of those public health measures. and certainly educational settings, including schools, are very much part of that discussion, including the fact that even with limited evidence, the graph that we show you show that the younger populations don’t experience the severe illness as much as the – those persons over the age of 60. So that’s part of the considerations I think in terms of safe return of kids to school. I think what we are really happy to see is that every jurisdiction have said we really need to move cautiously. So you may want to start with some schools in an area that isn’t really in the hot zone, and then you progressively monitor what happens, and then you gradually ease back certain other settings as well. So I see that all provinces are really sort of aligned with some of those public health criteria and that they are moving cautiously through those plans. So I think planning is actually important for work settings as well. I think chief medical officers have said here are some public health parameters, but we need different work settings and sectors who know their own workplace really well, to see if they can come up with the kind of plans that are needed in preparation for when the time isright.
Dr. Howard Njoo:
Maybe I can just add to that. Certainly the authorities in each of the provinces and territories are closer to the ground than obviously we are at the federal level, so they have more data to work with, and they know exactly what’s been happening in their jurisdictions. So I’ll pick the province of Quebec as an example. We all know that the tragedy that’s unfolding in their long-term care facilities. So certainly the efforts there, they are doubling and redoublingit, looking at testing residentsand staff and so on and so forth. So that’s a special situation. But then if you look ats, quote, the rest of the general population, it’s also depending on the region. So certainly montreal is a hotspot, and so what they may wish to do in montreal, even in terms of opening schools and so on, maybe to a different schedule or rhythm than they mayconsider in other parts of the province. Also to add to what Dr. Tam said, all of us, including obviously our counterparts in Quebec and the other provinces, are looking at the scientific evidence and seeing how it’s evolving. In terms of the children, it’s very interesting. There is limited data out there, but we’re looking at it carefully. As Dr. Tam said, it appears thatchildren in general have milder symptoms, obviously compared to older adults. Another point that’s interestingis based on some of the evidencewe looked at, the children also don’t seem to be sort of major transmitters, or responsible forthe propagation. So all those types of evidence and what we have in terms of thedata is certainly I think being an important part of the considerations that all public health authorities in each of the provinces and territories are looking at. Thank you.
Thank you. Dr. Tam and Dr. Njoo. Toronto star”?
Reporter:
Good morning. Dr. Tam, can you help me understand? so a lot of this looks a lot like what you presented April 9, and the assumption in the graph on the – page 14 suggests that you see, again, 1 to 10% of the population infected with strong controls, which we have now. and you see it peaking in the summer, and then petering out by the fall. I’m just curious if you can help me understand, first of all, what’s the number of population? is that the 10% we see on page 21? that you see that up to 10%, 3.7million, under your scenario that would peter out by the fallwould be infected? I’m curious if that’s then what you’re projecting, I don’t understand how you see the epidemic petering out when you yourself have cautioned against any assumptions about herd immunity by then and we won’t have a vaccine by then, we won’thave – you know. So help me understand what you’re saying there.
Dr. Theresa Tam:
So these are just planning scenarios.
Reporter:
But you must have numbers, right? you have actual numbers?
Dr. Theresa Tam:
These are the tables that you see in – I think in the annex, and the green, the blue and the red correspond to those numbers. and these – so the 1 to 10% in the green bars at the back is what you would sort of project as being under that green curve, and the blue one and the red one, for example. and the attack rates that have been, you know, indicated on slide 14. Those are the numbers that are being displayed in that table. and you can certainly refer to that. and we don’t have no control, sou think that can be put aside. We are trying to, of course, working very hard and I think we are staying in that green zone. This is for the course of the pandemic, and you’re right in that, you know, the following slideshows that that epidemic could result in sort of – you know, because there’s no – we have to do some of the serologicinvestigations to know what the underlying proportion of the population infected is, but it’svery likely that we don’t have that high level of immunity. So when we discuss across the country with the chief medical officers that that is the assumption that we have to maintain a certain level of public health measures, have to be really careful, and we are actually going to be living withcovid-19 for the near future and monitoring very carefully so that if there’s any upswing, that any cases and contacts have to be identified and managed so that you don’t get that upswing again. Now some of the modelling work going on right now with the dynamic models, they are basically showing what will happen if we didn’t achieve epidemic control and didn’t have effective public health measures in place, when we begin to ease some of these measures, is that we could see a second wave that is even bigger than the first. So everything is dependent on what we are doing right now. So if we do everything that we are doing right now and maintaining and easing through things really slowly and cautiously, we can get to the bottom of that initial wave. But even then you have to be extremely careful about what is going to happen, and so – and different shifts, and if you don’t detect those cases and manage them really fast, that’s where you could potentially get that second wave. So I think conceptually that’s what slide 15 is trying to say, is that we’ve got to keep going with our measures.
Dr. Howard Njoo:
I would just add to that. Certainly Dr. Tam and myself, we’re not thinking, as you said, the epidemic or pandemic is going to peter out in Canada. With all of our collective efforts, we’re flattening the curve and we’re certainly hopeful that we’re close to if not getting toward the downside of that first wave. But there are a couple of things that certainly will be in play as we move forward. Certainly the basic core principles in terms of good physical distancing, people maintaining that, the handwashing, the cough etiquette, all those basic things will still be in place. and of course, as Dr. Tam has also mentioned, each of the provinces and territories, if they are considering in terms of what they might want to do in terms of maybe loosening or relaxing some of the public health measures, you have to assure you have a good surveillance system, laboratory, public health system in place to be able to rapidly detect, isolate cases and so on so you’re able to see if the measures are not having the intended effect. and then as well you have to make sure that you have the hospital capacity should there be an upswing in cases that you are able to accommodate patients that come in. So there’s lots of things in play that all of the chief mos are looking at, and certainly what we’re looking at is not that after the first wave where we’re in the clear. We’re helping a second, third, who knows how many waves, but we’re trying to find a manageable level in terms of, as you say, opening up the economy, relaxing measures so people can go outdoors, but with a manageable level of I guess certain COVID-19 activity that will be percolating I guess in the general population. Each province and territory is different in terms of their own context, what the issues are in terms of how it’s being transmitted within key subpopulations, long-term care facilities, et cetera. So those are some of the considerations that obviously each of the chief medical officers of health, as well as ourselves, and our special advisory committee, are discussing on a daily basis.
Reporter:
Can you confirm, then, based on what I’m seeing here, it looks a lot like what you released before, so it’s no tan actual model. You haven’t provided your induct data or methodology. That is a synopsis of modelling that the department has done based on a bunch of different Canadian and international experts you’ve consulted. is that correct? and if it is, to what extent do you have any concerns about whatyou’re looking at in your planning scenarios when you’re only working with less than 60% it seems of case data to work with to make your numbers on hospitalization and ICU. Maybe you can clarify some of that. I still don’t quite understand why you’re not releasing actual mathematical models done by youragency.
Dr. Theresa Tam:
Yes, so we know that you have to use a whole suite of models depending on the question you’re trying toanswer. So I think it is actually really great that we’re consulting across the country with many different academics and experts. Some of the methods that we’re using have already been published, of course, and in the annex slide you see –
Rosemary:
Okay, I also want to show you the other thing that’s happening in Ottawa at this hour. and that is a sitting of the special COVID-19 committee. So it is not the house of commons sitting, just to clarify, with the help of some experts on Twitter. The house of commons can only meet in person, and that will happen tomorrow. But this is the virtual sitting of the COVID-19 committee. There are, although you cannot tell from that shot of the speaker of the house, Anthony Rhoda on the right, 297 MPs who have dialled in via zoom to participate in this special committee at which ministers are taking and answering questions. and they are even tabling petitions, as you would inside regular sitting of the house of commons. But this is a committee sitting, just to be very clear. But there are a lot of MPs represented, which was one of the primary concerns from opposition parties, particularly the conservatives. 297 of them at this meeting. The Prime Minister expected to appear shortly, if he’s not already there. and again, the house of commons itself will reconvene tomorrow for an in-person sitting, and Thursday they will try this virtual tack again. Apparently the biggest issue hasbeen the mute and unmute, as youcan expect, as you probably haveexperienced yourself. That does seem to be the most challenging thing when these unfold virtually. So anthony roda there, the speaker of the house of commons, managing the committee. On your right, and on your left, the chief public health officer, Dr. Theresa tam, talking more about the modelling that they have presented today. I’m just trying to see if the speaker will actually throw to an mp so you can see a little bit more what that’s going to look like. There you go. and so that’s conservative mp, I’m trying to remember who it is, garnett genuis, I believe. That’s how it’s going to play out. We will monitor it through the couple of hours that it will sit. But it does appear to be working, so that’s good for democracy. Let’s go back to the federal public health agency briefing. We have about five minutes, and as soon as we see franÇois legault, the premier of Quebec, pop up in Quebec city, we’ll bring that to you. He is announcing plans to reopenbusinesses in that province. Here’s the deputy chief public health officer now.
Dr. Howard Njoo:
I think obviously it’s a good representation. We are all working together I think really well, and I think in the future, to be quite honest, those are things we need to look at in terms of how data is managed, how data is collected, transferred even at local level to provincial level, and then to the federal level. So those are things that we need to look at improving in the future.
Thank you, one last question.
Reporter:
I have one question and one follow-up. You say we’re in the green zone right now. So pretty low case rates. You mentioned in your opening remarks, does that mean that lowinfection means there’s a higherproportion of people still open for infection later. So what does that mean for the measures? does that mean that until we have better treatment or a vaccine we will have this physical distancing in place at a certain level? and if we will maintain some physical distancing until that point, what is that physical distancing?
Dr. Theresa Tam:
So that’s I think – you grasped the conceptthat, you know, is likely, that a significant proportion of our population is not immune. In the immunity task force that we talked about earlier this week, some of the serological studies are going to try and answer some of those questions in looking at different parts of the population and the level of immunity or the level of infection exposure to the virus. We still have to study the immunological exposure to the virus and how they develop immunity and how long it lasts over time. That’s quite a dynamic piece that hasn’t actually been answered yet. So those questions will remain, which means you’re right, that we will not go back to what life will be like before January of this year. Public health authorities will be easing things very gradually, but we talk about sort of living with the virus for a significant number of months and until there’s enough level of immunity. But buying some time has lots ofadvantages, because I think there were many clinical trials are with treatments, not just the vaccine piece, but hopefully to manage the outcomes of serious illnesses and deaths as well. [ please stand by ]and other aspects of life where these basic fundamental hygienic measures be policies and protocols, as well as all those public health capacities have to be in place. and you’re going to have to dial some of them up again if you’re going to see some cases. So, I think I would love to go back to where we were in december of last year. But, no, we’re going to be living in having different routines, different daily routines. But I think we need to balance the effectiveness of measures, study them. But also balancing with any unintended consequences. We know the impacts to mental health, to gender-based violence, to other aspects of society in the economy so it is a very delicate balance that we all have to really manage very well. But we all understand that if accelerate re-opening, it would be as maive setback to the gains we’ve already had. So we have to keep going at it. and so I think this is absolutely still a marathon, I think.
Reporter:
and you’ve talked to us over the last few weeks about how as you get more data, you get better data and a better projection of it. and there are changes in the modeling. Yet in the long-term modeling we don’t see any changes today. What specifically is the data you are missing today that you need in order to improve the models in order to make them more accurate or reflect better what Canada’s experiencing.
Well, I think these initial models for planning purposes, you have to kind of plan for the worst. Even if you are not going to get there. But really function so that you can achieve the best. So, that is the concept of that particular type of model. So I think all of those public health maeshls still hold. There are many, many modelers right now working 24/7 across the academic sector and also within the agency working with them who are looking at these dynamic models, feeding in all sorts of scenarios or what happens when you begin to relax different measures as to what the outcomes are. and I think those are quite interesting to see. But the bottom line they’re always going to say is whatever we do, and if we eased off things too fast, and we can’t monitor it, you might see a resurgence and second wave that’s bigger than that initial one. and so I think that is the message that they will be trying to convey. As they’re doing the modeling. and it is a message that the public health arena really take to heart.
Interpreter:
Thank you. That concludes today’s press conference.
Rosemary:
Ok. That is the federal briefing from public health officials there, giving us a sense of the national projections, modeling that they have put together over the past three week, 19 days so since the last time we got this. The good news, if you are looking for some and you may well be these days is that the public health measures, the very strict public health measures are, in fact, working. I’ll give you one example of what Dr. Tam presented to us when she last gave this update nine days ago. Cases were doubling every three days. We have now managed to slow that to a doubling of cases every 16 days. Every 16 days. So, that is pretty remarkable. She also says, though, that the centres that continue to be a huge concern, long-term care centres and places where people have to live together. Long-term care centres now make up 79% of deaths in this country. Let me bring you now live to some history being made. That is the Prime Minister speaking from his home office in the first virtual sitting of the COVID-19 committee. Let’s listen in to the PM right now.
Prime Minister Trudeau:
Huge challenges we might face, if we could have an undetected resurgence of COVID-19. We are incredibly pleased by how many innovative Canadian companies and individuals have put forward new solutions and health Canada is prioritizing and rapidly going through a process of evaluating these tests. But at the same time, we cannot compromise on such as the safety of individual Canadians for this test, but the safety of our entire country. We have approved a number of different tests the. We will be approving more. But it needs to be done in a safe way with the real recovery of our country as the core goal that we’re facing.
Mr. Scheer?
Andrew Scheer:
Mr. Speaker, information has come out that a Canadian company called blue dot was able to track incidents of COVID-19 in china as early as December of 2019. Blue dot has indicated that, among their clients are 12 countries, including front line health care providers here in Canada. Can the Prime Minister indicate whether or not the government of Canada had access to blue dot’s information back in December?
Mr. Prime Minister?
Prime Minister Trudeau:
Thank you, Mr. Speaker. We were advised in early January of the possibility of what became COVID-19 in china. We made sure that we were monitoring intelligence sources, working with our 5is partners on that. As you high light, a Canadian company was involved in tracking the spread early on. But we are glad to have that company with us now. Our information around what was going on in china came to us – into us through a range of intelligence services, of public accounting and reporting as well as 5is and other allies around the world. We continue to work with all of those allies to understand exactly what is going on around the world and how we can best position ourselves. We are working with a range of technology companies and innovators to ensure that we’re actually doing everything we can to monitor and track the spread of COVID-19 in Canada. There’s lots more to do. But Canadian innovation will certainly be a part of that as we move forward.
Rosemary:
If you want to continue watching this, the house of commons sitting virtually for this COVID-19 committee, this extraordinary meeting of almost 300M.P.s and in this case the official leader of the opposition questioning the Prime Minister. You can go to our website, cbc. Ca/politics. In the meantime, let’s go to Quebec city where the premier and provincial officials are giving an update on the pan democrat – pandemic in that province and expecting them to unveil details about the province’s plan for re-opening businesses. Andrew nichols will pick up your coverage here. Let’s listen live.
Interpreter:
Who should no longer be hospitalized. There were 94 yesterday. So that is to say that 94 people no longer need any hospital care, but we voluntarily kept them at the hospital rather than sending them back, for