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News before the Speech

About the CERB as well as potentially some other news too. I’ll bring in My colleagues, the host of “power & politics”, Vassy kapelos and the cbc’s David Cochrane quickly because know he’s going to jump out there, come down the stairs veryquickly. Vassy, we are expecting to hear a little bit more about CERB. Yesterday the Prime Minister said there would be an extension and they were working on that.

Vassy:

Yeah, lots of political back and forth given that there’s a confidence vote tomorrow in the house of commons. We anticipate there will be moredetails. I’m being told by a number of people in the government it will look like an extension through the rest of the summer, at least’til the end of August. I don’t know, again, though, what added conditions they might put on to accessing CERB if that will be the case. We’ll look to find that out. and the other thing we’re anticipating is as our colleaguekatie Simpson first reported last week that there will be another extension of the restrictions at the border between the United States and Canada. No surprise given what we’ve been talking about, you and I, Rosie, for a number of days, the spike in cases in so many states.

Rosemary:

and David, I guess they have been working obviously on the border extension. It doesn’t seem to be any push back from the white house at this stage. It all seems to be rolling along pretty well.

David:

No, they are rolling over the border because nobody is ready to open it and they are rolling over the CERB because nobody is ready to come off it, or at least millions aren’t ready to come off it. As to the attestation point, there will be something to say you are actively looking for work. This is one of the things they tried to put in legislation last week when things sort of fell apart and they couldn’t advance any of the legislation because of the opposition parties. They will tweak the wording of the attestation to say you are seeking employment. One of the downsides of the cerbis that giving people $2, 000 a month, particularly at the lower end of the wage scale in the service sector, in places like that, it is viewed by many employers as a disincentive to go back to work, so they want to sort of make it a little bit more like employment insurance, at least in philosophically, where, you know, you have to actively say when you get EU that you are looking for work and trying to find a job. They will do a similar measure with what you sign to qualify for the CERB.

Rosemary:

and tomorrow is a confidence vote in the house because it has to do with money, and that’s how confidence motions are generally build. It’s estimates, so the approval for the money that the government is spending through all these measures. So we know that there’s a lot of negotiations happening as Vassy mentioned behind the scenes. Let’s just get both of your takes on where the support will be at this stage. I think it’s fair to say no one wants an election. I don’t think we’re trying to set up that kind of drama. But certainly, you know, these things are always possible, what the government has to do, of course, is come up with someone to dance with on this issue, andthat’s why the CERB has been perhaps a little more complicated because it is not –well, it is not attached to the estimates. It is part of what they are negotiating around that, Vassy. So where do we think that dance partner will come from at this stage?

Vassy:

It looks likely the NDP The NDP has been the party, and its leader, jag meet Singh, pushing the extension of the CERB. Last week they wanted to see a four-month extension. Yesterday they walked that back and said I want a commitment from the federal government thatthey will extend it in order to help people who run out, who come up against the end of theireligibility, which happens in just a few weeks, and there’s about 2 million Canadians in that position. So it’s a lot of people, as david underscored. So now it depends who you’re talking to. is it the government, they say they were going to do this anyway. The NDP is saying the governmentwouldn’t have done it without the NDP pushing them to do it. The big question is whether or not what the government lays outtoday is enough to get the NDP to support it in those votes on the estimates tomorrow, and we’ll find out, I’m guessing shortly, but My guess, if I had to wager, is probably yes.

Rosemary:

I would say that Otis true the government has long signalled it was not going to just cut people off from CERB, that they were looking for some sort of other solution. What the NDP may have succeeded in doing, David, is sort of putting some – lighting a bit of a fire under the government here, but I would also points out the NDP financially is in no position to go into an election either. So I mean, it is a bit of a game of chicken. It’s important policy decisions, but it’s also a bit of a political game of chicken here.

David:

Yeah, those conservative leadership debates this week would be kind of pointless if they brought down the house tomorrow and Andrew Scheer was running as leader in the election. I think what the NDP probably accomplish and all of the opposition parties, the conservatives not on board with this, getting the penalties out of CERB, the crack down on fraud in the fines and possible imprisonment. You may see legislation come next week to deal with the disability payments they wanted to do and maybe some criteria changes to CERB, I don’t know, in terms of expanding who qualifies for it and that sort of a thing. But a straight rollover, a straight extension is something the government can do without anybody’s support, and by keeping that economic – do it through regulation. So keeping that economic floor under millions of Canadians probably gets them through tomorrow. But look, there’s a lot of rams in those nature documentaries butting heads for sheer spectacle. Nobody’s going to force an election in the middle of a pandemic. If they did, I think voters would rightfully punish them and they would deserve to be punished for it. Never mind the health risks and the inconvenience and the inability of a government to properly respond to all the ebb sand flows of this thing, it’s just a downright crazy idea at this point in time given the state of the world.

Rosemary:

This is what a minority government does. It forces the government to have to negotiate with different people and to compromise or move its position or be a little more flexible in its position.

David:

and it’s worked so far.

Rosemary:

Yeah, it has worked and they’ve managed to take suggestions from conservatives, from the NDP I’m not sure if they’ve taken anything from the bloc, but they tend to talk through these things and they get to a place where they get agreements. I should say the Prime Minister also has I don’t know how many phone calls today with world leaders around the UN security council vote which is taking place tomorrow. I don’t know if he’ll refer to that here, but here now is the Prime Minister of Canada.