News after the Speech

Rosemary:

All right. That is the Prime Minister of Canada on this Monday morning with his no longer daily briefing as he made clear as we move into Jul and come out into Darren. Phase of this pandemic. The Prime Minister and public health officials will scale back what were daily press conferences up until the past couple of week and simply come out a couple of times a week or when is needed to bring us news. So that, too, a sign that it’s summer but also a sign that we’re moving into a different phase of this pandemic. I’ll bring back Vassy and Catherine before we get to the top of the hour when public health officials will bring us some of those new modeling numbers that the Prime Minister indicated show that we’re moving in the right direction. The Prime Minister also did announce an extension to another programme, Vassy, one that I know you were track ago lot because the uptake didn’t seem to be necessarily moving in the right direction. and that is commercial rent.

Vassy:

This is a tough one from the start because, of course, commercial rent or rent period is provincial jurisdiction. Some provinces moved fairly quickly out of the gate to issue moratoriums on commercial evictions but others didn’t. The federal government stepped in, I think it was in late April, I could be wrong there and worked out a deal with the provinces to backstop help for for tenants, but through landlords. I was predicated on landlords taking a cut on a quarter of their rent. They had to agree to that. and then the tenant would pay a quarter of it and the rest would be subsidized by the federal government. It applied to April, may and June and what the Prime Minister announced today is that it will be extended another month. That will come as a relief to the people who are participating in it because rent is due on Wednesday and we had already been hearing, our I certainly have been, and I’m sure you have, too, from business owners who are still concerned about fixed costs they’re dealing with. It’s true that the Prime Minister and the federal government have made available that emergency loans, $40, 000 that, you know, hundreds of thousands of businesses have taken them up on. and that only goes so far and as we see this re-opening process take place, what we have realised very, I think, acutely is it doesn’t happen overnight. and the business doesn’t come back right away. Especially if you think about a restaurant that just two weeks ago got the green light to open up 50% of its patio, you’re talking about being, you know, a quarter maybe of the capacity that you normally could host in a restaurant. Lots of businesses still strugling with those expenses and I did get some numbers as did phil, your producer, from the department of finance because I was curious about the uptake. Our colleague had reported quite extensively on this programme in particular, the commercial rent assistance. At the time, as of June 8, there were 5500 tenants that had been able to benefit from it, representing about $39 million in funding. As of June 25, the latest numbers the department has is that 23500 small business tenants had been approved or funded, representing about $178 million in approved funding. So, that sounds Ok.except OR when you look that $3 billion was originally allotted for it. So it’s not quite the uptake that anyone had expected. It’s definitely not positive, but many of the provinces had been waiting – I’m thinking particularly of Ontario – to see what the uptake in this programme would be before issuing moratorium on evictions and since then they have issued those moratoriums at least for the duration of this programme that. Will hopefully be extended another month, offering a bit of relief to a lot of these businesses which, as I mentioned, are still dealing with a lot of stress and a lot of financial pressures on them.

Rosemary:

Yeah. It’s moving in the right direction in terms of uptake, I guess. People are getting access to it, although you’re right, not what they expected at all. I’ll get you, Vassy and then move to Catherine to weigh in, too, on the human rights report out today. Suggesting that Canada needed to do more for citizens in Syria. and I should point out that these are, yes, Canadian citizens but they are also citizens who have alleged ties to ISIS who, in some cases, went over to Syria to fight for ISIS. and human rights is raising the alarm bell about what Canada should do, if anything. But it is a very complicated situation and I think the Prime Minister reflected that.

Vassy:

That is the exact word I was going to use. Complicated. First of all, just logistically, right? the idea that – and most of these Canadians – so 26 of them human rights watch says are children. Some of them under the age of 6. But the adults are mostly Canadians who went over there to fight with ISIS. At least that is the allegation. and they’re now being held, some of of by the Kurd, for example. Some of them by other groups in northern Syria. The conditions under which they’re held are terrible, according to human rights watch and there are a number of academic ks in this country that have done extensive research on them. I’m thinking of Jess Davis as well as Leo west. They have gone over there and seen the conditions. It’s not good, right? logistically going over there to goat them and bring them back is a problem. As the Prime Minister points out, there are no consular services there. Canada doesn’t have a diplomatic presence in Syria. It is further complicated by the politics around all of this. Right? and I actually found it interesting today that the Prime Minister’s tone, I would say, has shifted from what we used to hear from Ralph goo dale who took a very hard line against this and the primary argument that they used before the logistics of all of this is we don’t think we should go over there to at least rescue the adults or bring the adults back because, a, the burden of proof if we bring them back for charging or convicting them with terrorism is extremely high. It is very difficult to do in Canada. But they made the choice to do this. and I’m paraphrasing, they’ll suffer the consequences. That is the that thing er Ralph goo dale used to put forward. The Prime Minister led with not that argument, but the logistics of it. The difficulty and danger that you might be placing consular officials in if they were to go repatriate people who are in those – who are going over there. There are a number of countries since this call to action was first made over a year ago that have repatriated their citizens. The United Kingdom, France, the United States among them. Not all of them, but they have done a certain amount of repatriation. So why not Canada? the Prime Minister didn’t have really a specific reason other than it’s not plausible, it’s not easy to get over there and you might be endangering canadian’s lives. I think that work complicated becomes extremely pertinent here when you think about the kids, right? many of these kids are, you know, did not go over there to fight with ISIS. You can’t use the same sort of moral argument that you would for the adults and there have been – there have been signs that the federal government is interested in doing something, but, you know, I can’t see by based on what the Prime Minister said that happening anytime soon.

Rosemary:

No. and the foreign affairs Minister when he responded to this report said if Canadian citizens make their way to a consul, for instance in turkey and say they need help, they will be helped but it is not the Canadian government’s intention to go in nor can they go into a conflict zone to rescue Canadians who would, as the Prime Minister rightly points out, undoubtedly be charged upon returning to Canada for their alleged crimes. Thank you for that. I’ll go to Catherine now as we wait for Canada’s chief public health officer, Dr. Teresa tam. I found it interesting, Catherine, that the Prime Minister, while highlighting that the modeling numbers we’re about to get today are good, show that we’re moving in the right direction, that we have to be careful. He was also asked extensively about masks because that has become a growing debate in this country, too, about mandatory mask wearing in public places.

Reporter:

Yeah. and talked a lot about his own behaviour as an example and really tried to keep the focus on the positive about the – how this is ultimately on the shoulder of all Canadian but that he has faith that things will be well because of that. That he essentially believes in Canadians. I was going back and looking at some of the comments we heard from Dr. Tam, as Vassy pointed out earlier, June 4, the last time she gave us these modeling projections. and she did say the largest number of cases were young adults, middle aged adults. That was even at that time and really has been throughout this where we’re seeing the greatest number of cases. We know, of course, when it comes to the greatest number of guests, though, those are people above the age of 60. She talked last time that 80% of the deaths being people in long-term care facilities. We’ve been talking about another group of vulnerable people in this country hit by this. Farm workers are often – migrant workers coming from overassess and living in close quarters. Another thing that Dr. Tam said last time that we can expect to hear once again, a lot of attention need her comments about explosive growth. The potential for explosive growth as Canadians start to let their guard down. So I think we’ll want to hear from Dr. Tam today. No doubt she will talk about it. Where she sees us as being, now that we’re in this place of loosening these restrictions. When we first talked about these modeling numbers, I think a lot of the emphasis was on the longer term and what sort of picture public health officials were working with. We all know it is not a chris cal ball. Where were we going? we now understand that there is such a broad range of scenarios that, in fact, these updates are most useful for understanding where are we right now? where have we been in the past few weeks, perhaps where we will be in the next few days. But those kinds of big picture projections, really there’s so much variation and what’s happening and you pointed to the examples of windsor-essex and kingston. They are ultimately, in the grand scheme of things, two smaller things but potent examples showing us how things can go – New Brunswick as well without cases and saw that turn around quite quickly.

Rosemary:

It is about the flare-up and how we respond to them. Thank you both very much. I’m going to squeeze in an interview before the public health officials come in. We have assistant professor from the university of toronto and he’ll hopefully come back after, too, if we need to talk to him to help us understand the numbers. Good see you. Let’s just leave where catherine talked about there, the fact that we are seeing what I think – I don’t know if they’re hotspots or flare-ups, however you want to characterize them. Places in the country that have had outbreaks and how important is the response to those kinds of things? how worrying do you see some of these cases, whether it be windsor-essex or in kingston, for example.

There will be flare-ups. That is the word I like to use. Because it doesn’t have to accelerate all the way to an outbreak or even to a hotspot. Those are intense words. They’re going to happen for two reasons. One, they’re still circulating COVID-19. It just is. and it’s simmering and underground but will pop up from time to time. Also there is increasing travel, which is extremely concerning to me. But travel explains the New Brunswick cases and travel explains the windsor essex cases. So, we have both of these to contend with and they’re a fact of life at this point, no matter what your track record is, as a town or public health unit. There will be flare-ups, no question.

Rosemary:

The other thing we were discussing out of these numbers that we’ve seen on the public health agency’s website today is that, yes, the highest number of cases continues to be in that age category of over 80. But now there are more cases in the category of young people, 20 to 29. That, to me, seems very worrying even if it doesn’t lead to death or very serious cases. What do you think is going on there?

I think back to when I was in My 20s and how I would have managed My own behaviour during this time. I think I would have likely, to be honest, constructed a little logic and narrative to myself that says I’ll be Ok. I’ll be safe. I’m not causing any harm. So I think, you know, I’m not really expecting anyone else to be any better than me. I think people in their 20s are very interested in socializing, social life matters a lot. I think the lock down affects people in their 20s very heavily when your social life matters that much. I think there is a little bit of rule-breaking and 20-somethings will look at the statistics and say this is just going to be a cold for me. Worst case if I get it, it won’t be so bad for me. Of course, they may not necessarily realise that may may get it and spread it and cause suffering and death without realising. It’s invisible and hard to change your behaviour when something is invisible.

Rosemary:

The fact that you know you are unlikely, percentage-wise to die from it and unlikely even to get severely ill, probably allows people in that age category to be, as you say – and I probably would have been the same – to not always follow the advice as closely as they should.

Yes. I think that is what we’re seeing. However, if enough people in their 20s get infected, you will see complications, you will see severe cases and you will see death and I’m hoping we can avoid that.

Rosemary:

Let me ask you this. The United States, there’s now I think more than 30 states that are seeing increase in cases. Obviously some of these states have just re-opened too quickly or are now having to dial some of this back. But when you think about the fact that the border remains closed until the end of July, it is hard to imagine it re-opening anytime soon. But knowing we are in proximity to that kind of ongoingout break, what are your concern around that? there is some travel happening. It is essential traveling, but it is still happening.

It frustrates me that we haven’t defined what essential travel is. If I feel self-important enough, I can say My travel is essential. We need to minimize it as much as possible. We need trade goods. We need food. There’s all sorts of things that need to cross the border no, question. There is legitimate essential travel. If it’s don’t a small amount, then we can actually enforce the quarantine orders, the idea that self-isolation has to happen and we’ll enforce that and track that. You don’t that with thousands and thousands, but you can do it with hundreds and hundreds so we need to keep that border closed. My guess is it’s going to have to stay closed for more than 12 months and that is not something that people are talk about. It is hard to imagine what will happen in the United States until we have a vaccine or until the population has been sufficiently infected that you have herd immunity. To be honest, I think that is more likely.

Rosemary:

Really. You expressed concern around travel. You mean as people think about summertime and what they want to be doing. Do you not think anyone should not be doing any travel at all in what are your thoughts on that?

I think travel can be done safely. International travel, if it were up to me, there would be no international travel that’s not absolutely essential, full stop. I see a lot of advertisements from airlines promising to be flying people wherever they want to go. and I’m concerned about that. For domestic travel, I’m not at the point where I feel safe in an airlines public safety here. The ads I see and what I’m hearing from people around how full planes are, they can’t operate as a profit and protect people from COVID-19. I’m afraid profit is going to win. I think airlines should be taking their budgets and using it to mothball planes. We need less travel and maybe one way to do that is make it more expensive. It can be done safely but it can be done safely and profitably because you can’t pack airplanes or airports the way they used to.

Rosemary:

You saw over the weekend that west jet and air Canada are no longer removing those middle seats and they’re putting everyone back in with no physical distancing unless you call ahead and, you know, demand some extra space. They are not giving it to you anymore.

If it were up to me as the federal government, I would step in and impose a fee on tickets for the aisle and the window to pay for the middle seat, to make sure that it stays empty. It’s a good example of the airlines, I think, acting in a way that I understand why they’re doing it because they can’t operate at a loss. But I also think it’s unacceptable to operate unsafely. I would worry that airlines would be subject to class-action lawsuits down the road. There is nothing I can imagine worse than sitting shoulder-to-shoulder with a bunch of strangers hours on end. That is exactly how COVID-19 moves and how COVID-19 moves and I don’t trust airlines’ ability to operate safely and at a loss at the same time.

Rosemary:

One last question before I let you go. I appreciate you letting me pick your brain like this on TV. We have seen some increases in the weekly number of new cases per day. In Alberta, in man – Manitoba and Saskatchewan. and I cite those places because Manitoba and Saskatchewan in particular had done well for weeks and weeks. Saskatchewan’s rate has now almost tripled, although it is still in a very small number of cases, per 100, 000. But when you see those upticks and when people who live there see those upticks, how should they feel about them? how should they respond to them? it’s normal or we should be concerned or how should they respond to those things?

It is to be expected and it is concerning. The big question I have for those provinces is how on top of contact tracing are they? do we know where the cases are happening and can we shut that down? I worry about workers in hair salons, for example. I worry about grocery store clerks. I worry about restaurants and bars and patrons as well. There is a lot of places we can point to to say that’s risky. If we actually collect the data where people are getting sick, then we can design interventions to make that stop. So, it is not the number of cases, it is not even the rate. It’s the knowledge where it’s happening and enact interventions to make that and do it quickly. That is what mares.

Rosemary:

When you see what is happening in Kingston at the nail salon, one person infected, now it is 26 people and now they’re contact tracing 3, 000, that gives me reassurance that they’re able to test that many people.

That is exactly how to stay on top of this. That is how the second wave is limited to small, local outbreaks. I think personal care services are the new canary in the coal mine. It used to be grocery store worker when there was a lot of community spread. Now it is people doing close face-to-face work. Dental hygienists I’m worried about, but I know they know how to protect themselves. But hair care, salon worker, tatoo artists, people up close occupationally. That is where I’m extremely worried and we should be doing random, proactive testing of those groups.

Rosemary:

Yeah, Ok. I still have to call you Colin because you don’t like to be called Mr. Furness. Thank you so much for making the time. I appreciate you letting me pick your brain on all that stuff very much.

My pleasure.

Rosemary:

Colin is an infection control epidemiologist. We’re standing by and waiting to hear from our own public federal health officials on updated modeling. Remember that it took a number of weeks to get the federal department to put forward the modeling number and now I think we’re on the third or fourth time of get up thing dated number and it seems to be something that we’re better able to digest and take in and understand what they mean. Obviously a snapshot of where we’ve been and sometimes a sense of also where we’re going. a couple other things that the Prime Minister highlighted that I want to highlight as well. First of all, on July 1 marks the entry into force of the new NAFTA. It’s also Canada day. So, unlikely that there will be big NAFTA festivities. He wanted to make the point that that is, in fact, happening on July 1. So on Wednesday. and on Thursday, July 2, the province of Ontario will be the first province to start testing the new contact tracing app with the government of Canada announcing a couple of weeks now that the Prime Minister himself announced that, of course, is meant to try and give you a sense of where – whether you or your phone has been in contact with someone who has tested positive for COVID-19. All right. I can see Dr. Teresa tam making her way into the press conference. Obviously that contact tracing app starting in Ontario. But the government’s goal would be for it to roll out nationally and for many people to download it. It doesn’t use geolocators, it uses Bluetooth so there is a certain degree of protection around that. Let me bring you now back to that fleck Ottawa with the chief public health officer, Dr. Teresa tam, getting ready to give us her latest modeling numbers for the coming months in this country. Here she is.

Good afternoon. today I’ll be sharing an update on the national epidemiology and the modeling work that we’re using to inform ongoing control of COVID-19 in Canada. But first, I’ll begin by providing the latest number on COVID-19 in Canada. There have been 103, 250 cases reported in Canada to date. Including 8520 new deaths and 64% of those with COVID-19 have now recovered. Labs across Canada have tested over 2, 676, 000 people for COVID-19 to date. and over the past week, an average of 36, 767 people were tested daily with 1% testing positive. These numbers do change quickly and they are dated daily in the eveningings on Canada. Ca/coronavirus.

Bonjour.

[Voice of Interpreter]:

22 deaths, 64% of the cases have now recovered. Labs have tested 2, 676, 000 people for COVID-19 to date. Over the past week, an average of 36, 767 people were tested daily with 1% testing positive. These numbers change quickly and are updated daily in the eveningings on Canada. Ca/coronavirus.

Ok. I’ll begin with an update on the latest epidemiology. Slide three. Although most health regions in Canada have reported cases, this map showing the incidents rate for 100, 000 population illustrates that some areas have experienced more activity than others. In particular, Quebec and Ontario have had some heavily affected areas and considering the larger populations, these jurisdictions account for 86% of our cases overall. Currently hot spots linger with persistent community transmission in and around the Toronto and Montreal area. So, the – in looking at the box’s to the right. The lower box shows that the proportion of cases who died has remained at about 8%. the case fatality ratio changes over time as new cases and death are reported. Based on the available information, 15% of cases have required hospitalization and just over 3% have required intensive care.

[Voice of Interpreter]:

I’ll begin with an update on the latest epidemiology of COVID-19 across Canada. Slide try. Although most health regions in Canada have approved cases of COVID-19, this map showing incidents rates per 100, 000 people illustrates that some jurisdictions and regions within have experienced more activity than others. In particular, Quebec and Ontario have had some heavily affected area and considering their larger populations, these jurisdictions account for 86% of cases overall. Now with community transmission in and around Toronto and Montreal. If we look at the boxes to the right, and the lower boxes regarding deaths. This case fatality ratio changes over time as new cases and deaths are reported. Based on available information, 15% of cases have required hospitalization and just over 3% have acquired intensive care.

Slide four. These graphs showing that daily number of new cases and deaths on top and the daily totals of hospitalized and critical care case patients on the bottom, all illustrate the steady decline in COVID-19 activity since the peak of the epidemic in late April. Monitoring these indicators tell us the public health measures have been successful in slowing the transmission in the community, particularly all four show a steady decline.

[Voice of Interpreter]:

Now for slide four. These graphs showing that daily number of new cases and deaths on top and the daily totals of hospitalized and critical care case patients on the bottom, all illustrate the steady decline in COVID-19 activity since the peak of the epidemic in late April. Monitoring these indicators tell us the public health measures have been successful in slowing the transmission in the community, particularly all four show a steady decline.

Slide 5. Another indicator of epidemic control is r. T. or reproductive number. It represents how many people are affected by each new case. In other words for the epidemic to die out, r. T. needs to squintly remain below average. Meaning on average each new case affects one less than another person. Nationally it has been below one for more than eight weeks. At this point, with transmission under control in jurisdictions across the country, green shading is now the result of smaller numbers and localized outbreaks.

[Voice of Interpreter]:

Slide five. Another indicator of epidemic control is r. T. or reproductive number. It represents how many people are affected by each new case. In other words for the epidemic to die out, r. T. needs to squintly remain below average. Meaning on average each new case affects one less than another person. Nationally it has been below one for more than eight weeks. At this point, with transmission under control in jurisdictions across the country, green shading is now the result of smaller numbers and localized outbreaks.

Slide six. So, all age groups have been affected by this pandemic. Although incidents amongst children and youth has remain relatively low throughout. On the left, the sharp peak in incidents among adults is largely attributed to outbreaks in long-term care homes. As the epidemic has slowed, the incident rates have steadily declined in all age groups. So the decline has been relatively slower in younger age groups. Because transmission rates are declining so deeply in the oldest age groups, individuals under the age of 40 now account for a greater proportion of total cases in recent weeks.

[Voice of Interpreter]:

Slide six. So, all age groups have been affected by this pandemic. Although incidents amongst children and youth has remain relatively low throughout. On the left, the sharp peak in incidents among adults is largely attributed to outbreaks in long-term care homes. As the epidemic has slowed, the incident rates have steadily declined in all age groups. So the decline has been relatively slower in younger age groups. Because transmission rates are declining so deeply in the because transmission rates are declining so deeply in the oldest age groups, individuals under the age of 40 now account for a greater proportion of total cases in recent weeks.

Slide seven. The epidemiology of COVID-19 in Canada is a composite different regional epidemics. This slide shows Canada’s three large outbreaks across the top or have experienced significant community spread and daily cases into the hundreds, especially in Quebec and Ontario and to a lesser extent Alberta. The centre row shows provinces with outbreaks and limited community transmission with daily case counts remaining below 100 and transmission brought largely under control. The lower row with daily case counts in the low double-digits show provinces that experienced isolated and largely contained outbreaks with minimal to no community transmission. Finally, the multiple distinct peaks in the curve along the right-hand side for Alberta, Saskatchewan, and New Brunswick, serves as reminders that resurgence can happen in any place, in any time, even in areas with no levels of transmission. Prince Edward Island, the Yukon and Northwest Territories have had no community transmission, while Nunavut had reported no cases to date.

[Voice of Interpreter]:

Slide seven. The epidemiology of COVID-19 in Canada is a composite different regional epidemics. This slide shows Canada’s three large outbreaks across the top or have experienced significant community spread and daily cases into the hundreds, especially in Quebec a Ontario and to a lesser extent Alberta. The centre row shows provinces with outbreaks and limited community transmission with daily case counts remaining below 100 and transmission brought largely under control. The lower row with daily case counts in the low double-digits show provinces that experienced isolated and largely contained outbreaks with minimal to no community transmission. Finally, the multiple distinct peaks in the curve along the right-hand side for Alberta, Saskatchewan, and New Brunswick, serves as reminders that resurgence can happen in any place, in any time, even in areas with no levels of transmission. Prince Edward Island, the Yukon and Northwest Territories have had no community transmission, while Nunavut had reported no cases to date.

Slide eight. Current pat hens of COVID-19 incidents and this is in the past 14 days, show limited to no transmission in most areas of the country. Areas of increased incidents shown as darker blue areas on the map rather than areas experiencing outbreaks as seen in areas of Saskatchewan and hot spots of persistent community transmission seen in and around Toronto and Montreal.

[Voice of Interpreter]:

and I’ll just add that you can see also the windsor-essex area lighting up at the moment as well. So, the next slide. Slide nine. COVID-19 has exploded social and economic vulnerabilities and inequalities across canadian society, taking hold in settings among communitis that experience overcrowding, lower incomes and health disparities. Long-term care and assisted living homes have been hit the hardest with over 1, 000 separate outbreaks accounting for about 20% of confirmed cases and tragically over 80% of all deaths. Outbreaks in other congregants living and work settings are also driving case counts in some provinces. These settings include hospitals, correctional facilities, shelters and workplaces, including Canada’s largest outbreak linked to a meat processing plant.

[Voice of Interpreter]:

Slide nine. COVID-19 has exploded social and economic vulnerabilities and inequalities across Canadian society, taking hold in settings among communities that experience overcrowding, lower incomes and health disparities. Long-term care and assisted living homes have been hit the hardest with over 1, 000 separate outbreaks accounting for about 20% of confirmed cases and tragically over 80% of all deaths. Outbreaks in other congregants living and work settings are also driving case counts in some provinces. These settings include hospitals, correctional facilities, shelters and workplaces, including Canada’s largest outbreak linked to a meat processing plant.

I just want to point out also on this slide, we’re looking at the more recent outbreak of clusters in the east as society begins to re-open again and these do include indoor family gatherings. Slide 10. So, really in some way, the epidemiology indicates that transmission is largely under control, while also showing us that cases can re-emerge anytime or place. In today’s update, I’ll talk about how we’re using modeling to identify the combinations and intensity of public health measures we need to maintain control, stamp out outbreaks and models provide a wider rediction of what could happen under hypothetical scenario, allowing us to drive our public health actions towards a best possible outcome.

[Voice of Interpreter]:

Slide 10. So, really in some way, the epidemiology indicates that transmission is largely under control, while also showing us that cases can re-emerge anytime or place. In today’s update, I’ll talk about how we’re using modeling to identify the combinations and intensity of public health measures we need to maintain control, stamp out outbreaks and models provide a wider rediction of what could happen under hypothetical scenario, allowing us to drive our public health actions towards a best possible outcome.

Slide 11. This is a reminder, Canada is aiming for strong epidemic control over the course of the pandemic. Where less than 10% of the population is affected overall. Thanks to the commitment of all Canadians who have been following public health advice to protect themselves and others, we are well on our way down the right side of the big first peak. Unfortunately, the novel coronavirus has not been eliminated and we don’t have an effective vaccine at this time. As of public health restrictions are lifted to minimize the unintended health, social and economic consequences, we expect to see some resurgence of cases t. Key is to keep the number of cases small through ongoing core public health practices. We must be able to rapidly detect and isolate cases and quarantine their contacts in order to keep any resurgence at a small and manageable size.

[Voice of Interpreter]:

Slide 11. This is a reminder, Canada is aiming for strong epidemic control over the course of the pandemic. Where less than 10% of the population is affected overall. Thanks to the commitment of all Canadians who have been following public health advice to protect themselves and others, we are well on our way down the right side of the big first peak. Unfortunately, the novel coronavirus has not been eliminated and we don’t have an effective vaccine at this time. As of public health restrictions are lifted to minimize the unintended health, social and economic consequences, we expect to see some resurgence of cases. Key is to keep the number of cases small through ongoing core public health practices.

Slide 12. Dynamic models are telling us that if we relax too much or too soon, the epidemic will most likely rebound with explosive growth as a distinct possibility. Modeling simulations show us that, as we lift stay at home policies, business and school closures, we must strengthen other public health measures to contain epidemic control. The enhanced public health measures include rapid case detection, testing and timely contact tracing and quarantine to prevent any outbreaks in community settings.

[Voice of Interpreter]:

Slide 13. Fast and thorough case detection and contact tracing means that cases, including any contacts that go on to become cases, will be less likely to spread infection to others. So the higher proportion of cases that can be detected and isolated early in the course of the illness, the fewer people they’re likely to infect and will be less likely to spread infection to others. Likewise, where most or all contacts are identified early and plays into quarantine, fewer are likely to spread infection to others if they do become ill. So these modeling simulations illustrate the impact of rapid case detection, which is the graph on the left and contact tracing, the graph on the right, combined on academic control. The faster we are, the more we drive, the percentage of the population infected down. So, I’m going to take a very brave attempt at taking you through a couple of these graphs. So, just remember we’re trying to aim for the lower, the bottom of that y axis, the lower percentage of people infected. So, the red dot on the model, on the left, shows that if we detect cases within five days of becoming infectious, we need to reach more than 50% of all cases and isolate them to keep the epidemic under control. So, keeping that dot low. The model on the right shows that if we trace contacts within two days of their exposure, we need to reach more than 50% of all contacts and quarantine them to keep the epidemic under control.

Oaker.

[Voice of Interpreter]:

Slide 13. Fast and thorough case detection and contact tracing means that cases, including any contacts that go on to become cases, will be less likely toothers. So the higher proportion of cases that can be detected and isolated early in the course of the illness, the fewer people they’re likely to infect and will be less likely to spread infection to others if they do become ill. So these modeling simulations illustrate the impact of rapid case detection, which is the graph on the left and contact tracing, the graph on the right, combined on academic control. The faster we are, the more we drive, the percentage of the population infected down. So, I’m going to take a very brave attempt at taking you through a couple of these graphs. So, the red dot on the model, on the left, shows that if we detect cases within five days of becoming infectious, we need to reach more than 50% of all cases and isolate them to keep the epidemic under control. The model on the right shows that if we trace contacts within two days of their exposure, we need to reach more than 50% of all contacts and quarantine them to keep the epidemic under control.

Slide 14. So, the graph on the left, focus on that for now. Canada has been testing more people over time with a lower percentage of testing coming back positive. Indicating that our surveillance is sensitive and casting the net wide to pick up cases. If we switch to the right-hand side of the slide, the shorter the time interval between inspection, the quicker the cases are isolated and detected to prevent further spread. So, the graph on the right that shows this time interval has decreased over time for more than eight days, around three days currently.

[Voice of Interpreter]:

Slide 14. Canada has been testing more people over time with a lower percentage of testing coming back positive. Indicating that our surveillance is sensitive and casting the net wide to pick up cases. If we switch to the right-hand side of the slide, the shorter the time interval between inspection, the quicker the cases are isolated and detected to prevent further spread. So, the graph on the right that shows this time interval has decreased over time for more than eight days, around three days currently.

Slide 15. Public health authorities are monitoring the number of cases that cannot be linked to other cases as a measure of effective contact tracing. With the aim of keeping this number to a minimum. So, on the graph, this is the red part. The more cases that are unlinked, that is to say we don’t know how they were exposed, the harder it is to stop community spread. Lower daily case counts facilitates to link cases and break chains of transmission.

[Voice of Interpreter]:

Slide 15. Public health authorities are monitoring the number of cases that cannot be linked to other contact tracing. With the aim of keeping this number to a minimum. The more cases that are unlinked, that is to say we don’t know how they were exposed, the harder it is to stop community spread. Lower daily case counts facilitates to link cases and break chains of transmission.

Slide 16. As society re-opens, the average number of people we meet each day will increase and there will be additional places and situations where there is a higher risk of virus transmission. These tables show different combinations of case detection and contact tracing that can keep the epidemic under control. So, the colored cell shows successful combinations, according to three modeling studies that will keep the epidemic under control. So, the top table shows that with restrictive measures, school, university, workplace closure, for example, many different combinations can keep the epidemic specially democrat under control. The lower table shows that with increasing number of contacts between people, it becomes increasingly difficult for how to do case detection and contact tracing to control the epidemic. So the less of those colored cells. Therefore, as society opens and public health restrictions are relaxed, test veteran – it is even more important that Canadians continue with efforts to maintain social distancing and good hygiene to keep COVID-19 under control. This ensures that public health capacity is not overwhelmed and can use case detection and contact tracing to control the epidemic.

[Voice of Interpreter]:

Slide 16. As society re-opens, the average number of people we meet each day will increase and there will be additional places and situations where there is a higher risk of virus transmission. These tables show different combinations of case detection and contact tracing that can keep the epidemic under control. So, the colored cell shows successful combinations, according to three modeling studies that will keep the epidemic under control. So, the top table shows that with restrictive measures, school, university, workplace closure, for example, many different combinations can keep the epidemic specially democrat under control. The lower table shows that with increasing number of contacts between people, it becomes increasingly difficult for how to do case detection and contact tracing to control the epidemic. So the less of those colored cells. Therefore, as society opens and public health restrictions are relaxed, it is even more important that Canadians continue with efforts tomaintain social distancing and good hygiene to keep COVID-19 under control. This ensures that public health capacity is not overwhelmed and can use case detection and contact tracing to control the epidemic.

Slide 17. Canada has made significant progress to bring the epidemic under control. Thank to the commitment of Canadians, maintaining public health practices to maintain themselves and others. Across the country, jurisdictions continue to operate with appropriate conditions and controls in place to minimize spread of the virus. Due to the progress that Canadians have made, we’ll be decreasing the number of media avail abilities that we’ll be holding each week for the time being. We’ll be providing updates in person twice a week over the coming week, unless there is something we need to urgently bring your attention to. We’ll be issuing statements each day to keep you updated on the latest numbers and any news on the days that we’re not holding a media availability. So, we want everyone to remember the virus has not disappeared and resurgence can happen anytime or at any place. Until there is a vaccine or effective treatment, we need to continue to live with COVID-19 by balancing the risk of spread of COVID-19 with the unintended social and health consequences of restrictive public health measures. So, you should ask yourself, if you do test positive, consider that the fewer people that you have contact with, the quicker and the easier it will be for public health to trace them or down and interrupt chains of transmission to keep the spread of COVID-19 under control.

[Voice of Interpreter]:

Slide 17. Canada has made significant progress to bring the epidemic under control. Thank to the commitment of Canadians, maintaining public health practices to maintain themselves and others. Across the country, jurisdictions continue to operate with appropriate conditions and controls in place to minimize spread of the virus. Due to the progress that Canadians have made, we’ll be decreasing the number of media avail abilities that we’ll be holding each week for the time being. We’ll be providing updates in person twice a week over the coming week, unless there is something we need to urgently bring your attention to. We’ll be issuing statements each day to keep you updated on the latest numbers and any news on the days that we’re not holding a media availability. Remember the virus has not disappeared and resurgence can happen anytime or at any place until there is a vaccine or effective treatment, we need to continue to live with COVID-19 by balancing the risk of spread of COVID-19 with the unintended social and health consequences of restrictive public health measures. So, you should ask yourself, if you do test positive, consider that the fewer people that you have contact with, the quicker and the easier it will be for public health to trace them or down and interrupt chains of transmission to keep the spread of COVID-19 under control. Thank you.

Thank you. and there are some additional data that we have in the annexes to these slides which we don’t have time to go through all of them. But just an update on some of the ones that you’ve seen before. So, thank you.

Thank you, doctors. We’ll now open the line to questions.

[Voice of Interpreter]:

You can ask your question in either official language.

We ask that you make your way to the freestanding mic. Over to you, operator, Emily.

Operator:

Thank you. Merci. Please press star 1 on your telephone keypad if you’d like the ask a question. our first question is from Jordan press with the Canadian press. Please go ahead.

Reporter:

Good afternoon, doctors. Dr. Tam, I’m just curious about actually the first known case of COVID-19 was I believe a gentleman who had flown back from china and I’m curious, did he fully recover or are we watching anymore a scientific way? were you able to trace any other cases of infection to him? I’m curious if you can give us an outline of that very first case that sparked an outbreak of an epidemic in this country.

I think obviously any details should go to the local provincial health authorities. As I recall, that particular individual was with a traveling companion or member of the family. I think there was the husband and wife and – but as to what happened exactly to them, I think that is best answered by the local jurisdictions and we don’t sort of discuss those individual details based on privacy and other issues. But I think one point you are trying to make perhaps is that there’s more and more information that we can learn about what happens to people, not just immediately after they got sick, their journey through their clinical illness, but there are more and more studies that is going to have to be ongoing to look at any longer term impacts of COVID-19 on COVID-19. These are still the beginnings of learning about the impact of the virus.

It’s Dr. Njoo here. Maybe just add to what Dr. Tam said. You said you think the first case sparked the epidemic in Canada. This was the first case that was detected, reported in Canada. and subsequent cases reported in Canada had no connection to that first case so it wasn’t that this case then led to further chains of transmission. I want to be clear that obviously there were substantive cases that were detected independently in Canada and weren’t all linked to that first case as you might have alluded to. Thank you.

That is an important conversation. The initial cases were well-managed. They didn’t – the first few cases didn’ted three transmission that we’re aware of.

Thank you. Follow-up?

Reporter:

Yeah. I just wand ed to mention something else. We’re going to have fewer of these briefings. Can you talk a little bit about then what a typical bit –[no audio]

You cut off. Do you want to start your question again?

Reporter:

Oh. I was wondering because you mentioned there was going to be fewer of these media availabilities, if you can describe what your regular day has been like over the past few weeks given everything you’ve been doing and what the next few likes will be like for you as you try to recharge for the fall and a potential second wave.

Thank you so much for asking that question. Not many people have really asked me that. I think it is important to recharge. Right now, though, while we’re not maybe doing not every day during the week, press conferences there is no doubt that we’re still working nonstop. a lot of work that we’re doing right now is not just extremely vigilant and current phase of re-opening. It is also time to make sure we recharge everything so that we’re ready for any resurgences. So, recharging all around. But that is very important because I think most of the public health workers and anyone in the health system, I know all of My colleagues have been working extremely hard and I think on another interview, I was saying that I was probably working about 20 hours a day. It hasn’t changed an awful lot right now. So I think I need to sort of take My own advice perhaps on people balancing their mental and physical health and trying to do that better myself. Thank you.

Thank you. Certainly Dr. Tam and myself are still continuing with regular teleconferences with our counterparts and the special advisory committee, you know, with all the provinces and territories and what she didn’t spokesmen sing that she and I have been having active discussions to make sure that she takes some vacation time off and I sort of cover for her and vice versa because I do think that it is important that we celebrate Canada day coming up and our wonderful summer here coming up. Thank you.

Thank you. Operator, next question.

Operator:

Thank you. Merci. Our next question is from radio-Canada. Please go ahead.

[Voice of Interpreter]:

Yes, good afternoon. I have a question regarding immunity. People who are asymptomatic might be immune to COVID-19 or may not be. is this concerning to you because we want to restart the economy. Does it concern you that saying that people that are asymptomatic have low levels of immunity? answer – it’s Dr. Njoo here. Science is continuing to evolve and both of us have been closely monitoring what’s happening in other countries and here in Canada. We are looking at serologic research. This is a concern. We know that people’s immunity doesn’t last long if they have been infected. This will have an impact on public health measures and we need to keep these public measures in place and it also puts more pressure on us to find treatment and a vaccine. For now, if immunity doesn’t last, then this needs to be factored into our approach when we talk about a collective immunity. We’re going to continue our research and find other treatment methods and a vaccine. But we also need to remember that the public health measures such as physical distancing, good personal hygiene, staying home if we’re sick, these are all measures that are important to maintain. Follow-up question? yes. You didn’t mention masks, even though you recommend the use of them. a lot of people use them, a lot of people don’t. We walk around a grocery store, we walk throughout the city, we go to different businesses and there are still a lot of people who aren’t wearing masks who may find it useless. is it concerning to you? that a lot of people are not wearing masks? are you going to make the wearing of masks mandatory in the coming months because it’s an effective way to fight COVID-19? and I might slow a second wave. Answer, it is Dr. Njoo again here. Perhaps Dr. Tam will have something to add afterwards. We know that wearing a mask, a face covering is an additional measure that is important. It’s also important to maintain the other measures such as physical distancing. This is something that we have always highlighted. If it’s not always possible to maintain physical distancing if we have to take public transit, for example, or if we have to go to the grocery store. I believe that it’s better to raise awareness, it’s better to educate people so that they understand that it’s a good habit to take. It’s something that can be used for people to protect themselves and to protect others. I think that is more effective. It’s more effective to encourage people to use them. We need to educate them instead of regulating. This is a measure that provinces and municipalities can consider. Certain municipalities have already put in place something more regulated, more regulated measures. But I think that it’s better if it’s something that people can choose to do. If people realise that it’s good for them and for others, I think they’ll be more likely to do it. Dr. Tam?

a reminder to Canadians that this virus hasn’t disappeared. and another fact that became more – I think this terms of evidence base is that a lot of people are not symptomatic. Even if we don’t know the extent to which asymptomatic people can transmit. There are stud is that show that they can’t. [please stand by]

and if you can’t keep the two-metre distance, remember that mask to protect yourself and others. I know it’s not easy to do, but it’s an important added layer ofprotection on top of the physical distancing, the hand hygiene, et cetera. One other message is that what we just said in the modelling presentation, try to keep the numbers of your contacts low that reduces your risk and makesit better for public health to do the contact tracing at the same time as public health is increasing their capacity. The mask is another added layer of protection. Don’t forget the rest.

Thank you, doctors.

Operator:

Our next question is from Benjamin rashay.

Question:

[voice of interpreter] yes, goodafternoon. Regarding the data you shared today, it seems as though a second wave is inevitable. is this what we should remember from your presentation today?

Answer:

Thank you for your question. It’s Dr. Njoo here. With modelling we’ve stated that this isn’t a crystal ball. There may be a second wave. But when will this happen? people are saying it could happen in the fall. We know that if Canadians throughout the country set aside all public health measures, physical distancing, wearing masks, good health practices, well then there could be another wave in two or three weeks. But if we maintain our public health practices, well experts believe that in the fall it will be colder and with flu season and cold season coming up then, it might be important to plan for different outbreaks of other respiratory viruses on top of COVID-19. So we have to plan for this. It is important to maintain the public health measures that are in place. [end of translation].

Andrew:

Premier Doug ford is giving his daily COVID-19 update. Let’s watch.

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Premier Doug Ford:

There is as mall group of people causing trouble, lighting trucks on fire, smashing windows, and getting mixed up with o